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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Justine Kish won · U-DEC R3

Elo1399

Elo1480

Justine KishvsAshley YoderUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov · Friday, December 9, 2016Albany, New York, USA

Official fight result

Justine Kish won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJustine Kish: Pressure fightervsAshley Yoder: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Justine Kish wins(82.2%)

Actual result: Justine Kish wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justine Kish at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ashley Yoder enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Justine Kish has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ashley Yoder has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ashley Yoder (53.5%).
Ashley Yoder has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Justine Kish

Red Corner

Ashley Yoder

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1399

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'7"

162.56 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justine KishL2 streak

oldest →

vs Felice Herrig · Jun 17

vs Ji Yeon Kim · Jan 18

DECvs Luci Pudilova · Jan 20

SUBvs Sabina Mazo · Sep 20

vs Tracy Cortez · Apr 21

latest

Ashley YoderL3 streak

oldest →

vs Livinha Souza · Aug 20

vs Miranda Granger · Nov 20

vs Angela Hill · Mar 21

vs Jinh Yu Frey · Jul 21

vs Emily Ducote · Oct 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justine KishMetricAshley Yoder

4.51

Strikes / min

3.42

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

4.13

57%

Strike defense

47%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

1.09

50%

Takedown defense

66%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.08evenly matched on net striking-0.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Justine KishAshley Yoder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Justine Kish(7 fights)Ashley Yoder(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -80.5|Blue +80.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justine KishTargetAshley Yoder

By target zone

31% acc · 33%

Head

37% acc · 70%

58% acc · 37%

Body

40% acc · 27%

75% acc · 29%

Leg

50% acc · 2%

By position

43% acc · 78%

Distance

36% acc · 80%

77% acc · 20%

Clinch

40% acc · 9%

50% acc · 2%

Ground

63% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Justine Kish rounds

even

Ashley Yoder rounds

Round 1Justine Kish edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control1:09

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control2:51

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 3Justine Kish edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control1:27

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 107

Sig Strikes

44 / 116

45.7%

Sig Str %

38.7%

59 / 117

Total Strikes

77 / 156

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

5:27

Ctrl Time

2:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ashley Yoder	14 / 48	21 / 55	1 / 1	0
1	Justine Kish	23 / 47	23 / 47	0 / 0	0
2	Ashley Yoder	12 / 28	32 / 52	0 / 0	0
2	Justine Kish	7 / 17	10 / 20	0 / 0	1
3	Ashley Yoder	18 / 40	24 / 49	0 / 1	0
3	Justine Kish	21 / 43	26 / 50	1 / 1	0

Justine Kish

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights7

Ashley Yoder

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights11