← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Justin Willis won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1459

Justin WillisvsChase ShermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · Saturday, April 21, 2018Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Justin Willis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Justin Willis wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Justin Willis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Willis at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chase Sherman has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Willis (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Justin Willis

Red Corner

Chase Sherman

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1492

Elo

1459

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'4"

198.12 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin Willis

oldest →

vs James Mulheron · Jul 17

KOvs Allen Crowder · Dec 17

vs Mark Hunt · Dec 18

vs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 19

latest

Chase ShermanL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jake Collier · Jan 22

SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Apr 22

KOvs Jared Vanderaa · Jul 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Nov 22

vs Karl Williams · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin WillisMetricChase Sherman

3.37

Strikes / min

6.04

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

6.65

57%

Strike defense

52%

0.96

TDs / 15 min

0.09

36%

Takedown defense

74%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Justin WillisChase Sherman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Justin Willis(5 fights)Chase Sherman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.8|Blue -32.8

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin WillisTargetChase Sherman

By target zone

67% acc · 89%

Head

38% acc · 49%

100% acc · 11%

Body

73% acc · 35%

Leg

79% acc · 16%

By position

65% acc · 70%

Distance

44% acc · 77%

86% acc · 8%

Clinch

94% acc · 22%

85% acc · 22%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Justin Willis rounds

even

Chase Sherman rounds

Round 1Justin Willis edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:32

Knockdowns1

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Justin Willis edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control1:54

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Chase Sherman edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:34

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:17Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

76 / 109

Sig Strikes

69 / 137

69.7%

Sig Str %

49.3%

118 / 153

Total Strikes

112 / 180

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:00

Ctrl Time

2:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chase Sherman	17 / 39	27 / 49	0 / 0
1	Justin Willis	38 / 55	47 / 64	0 / 0
2	Chase Sherman	21 / 42	41 / 62	0 / 0
2	Justin Willis	21 / 29	48 / 57	1 / 1
3	Chase Sherman	31 / 56	44 / 69	0 / 0
3	Justin Willis	17 / 25	23 / 32	0 / 1

Justin Willis

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights5

Chase Sherman

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15