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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Justin Willis won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1492
Justin Willis
Elo1492

Justin WillisvsAllen CrowderUFC Prediction Result

UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · Saturday, December 2, 2017Detroit, Michigan, USA

Official fight result

Justin Willis won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:33

Model Prediction: Justin Willis wins(85.4%)

Actual result: Justin Willis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Willis at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Allen Crowder has 64pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Justin Willis (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Justin Willis
Red Corner
VS
Allen Crowder
Blue Corner
-230
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
1492
Elo
1492
39
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
198.12 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin Willis
oldest →
W
vs James Mulheron · Jul 17
W
vs Chase Sherman · Apr 18
W
vs Mark Hunt · Dec 18
L
vs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 19
latest
Allen Crowder
oldest →
W
vs Greg Hardy · Jan 19
L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Jun 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin WillisMetricAllen Crowder
3.37
Strikes / min
2.95
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
2.95
57%
Strike defense
56%
0.96
TDs / 15 min
1.85
36%
Takedown defense
100%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80evenly matched on net striking0.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1514 vs 1500Strikes52.0 vs —Takedowns3.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form1.0 vs 0.0
Justin WillisAllen Crowder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Justin Willis(5 fights)Allen Crowder(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin WillisTargetAllen Crowder

By target zone

21
49% acc · 95%
Head
6
21% acc · 40%
1
100% acc · 5%
Body
1
100% acc · 7%
0
Leg
8
100% acc · 53%

By position

14
56% acc · 64%
Distance
13
42% acc · 87%
6
35% acc · 27%
Clinch
2
29% acc · 13%
2
100% acc · 9%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Justin Willis rounds
0
even
0
Allen Crowder rounds
Round 1Justin Willis edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
22 / 44
Sig Strikes
15 / 38
50%
Sig Str %
39%
25 / 47
Total Strikes
17 / 41
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Allen Crowder15 / 3817 / 410 / 00
1Justin Willis22 / 4425 / 470 / 00

Justin Willis

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights5

Allen Crowder

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3