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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Yorgan De Castro won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1495
Justin Tafa
Elo1398

Justin TafavsYorgan De CastroUFC Prediction Result

UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · Saturday, October 5, 2019Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Yorgan De Castro won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:10

Model Prediction: Yorgan De Castro wins(63.0%)

Actual result: Yorgan De Castro wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yorgan De Castro at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Yorgan De Castro enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Yorgan De Castro has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Justin Tafa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Justin Tafa
Red Corner
VS
Yorgan De Castro
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
1495
Elo
1398
32
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin TafaL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Dec 21
W
KOvs Parker Porter · Feb 23
W
KOvs Austen Lane · Sep 23
L
vs Karl Williams · Mar 24
L
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Feb 25
latest
Yorgan De CastroL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Greg Hardy · May 20
L
vs Carlos Felipe · Oct 20
L
KOvs Jarjis Danho · Apr 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin TafaMetricYorgan De Castro
4.05
Strikes / min
2.46
5.11
Strikes absorbed / min
3.85
47%
Strike defense
53%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.00
53%
Takedown defense
77%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.06evenly matched on net striking-1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes2.8 vs 3.6Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Justin TafaYorgan De Castro

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Justin Tafa(9 fights)Yorgan De Castro(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +96.4|Blue -96.4
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin TafaTargetYorgan De Castro

By target zone

5
63% acc · 83%
Head
2
20% acc · 50%
1
100% acc · 17%
Body
2
100% acc · 50%
0
Leg
0

By position

2
67% acc · 33%
Distance
4
50% acc · 100%
4
67% acc · 67%
Clinch
0
0% acc
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Justin Tafa rounds
0
even
1
Yorgan De Castro rounds
Round 1Yorgan De Castro edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control1:09
Knockdowns0
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
6 / 9
Sig Strikes
4 / 12
66%
Sig Str %
33%
17 / 20
Total Strikes
6 / 14
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:09
Ctrl Time
0:12

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Yorgan De Castro4 / 126 / 140 / 00
1Justin Tafa6 / 917 / 200 / 00

Justin Tafa

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9

Yorgan De Castro

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4