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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Justin Tafa won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1495

Elo1497

Justin TafavsParker PorterUFC Prediction Result

UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Saturday, February 11, 2023Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Justin Tafa won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:06

Style matchupJustin Tafa: Pressure fightervsParker Porter: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Parker Porter wins(61.0%)

Actual result: Justin Tafa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Parker Porter at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Tafa is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Parker Porter has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Tafa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Justin Tafa

Red Corner

Parker Porter

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1495

Elo

1497

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin TafaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jared Vanderaa · May 21

KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Dec 21

KOvs Austen Lane · Sep 23

vs Karl Williams · Mar 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Feb 25

latest

Parker Porter

oldest →

vs Chase Sherman · Aug 21

vs Alan Baudot · Feb 22

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · May 22

KOvs Braxton Smith · May 23

KOvs Junior Tafa · Aug 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin TafaMetricParker Porter

4.05

Strikes / min

6.55

5.11

Strikes absorbed / min

6.32

47%

Strike defense

51%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.35

53%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.06Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap+0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Justin TafaParker Porter

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Justin Tafa(9 fights)Parker Porter(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.6|Blue +2.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin TafaTargetParker Porter

By target zone

46% acc · 75%

Head

38% acc · 71%

67% acc · 25%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 29%

By position

42% acc · 63%

Distance

47% acc · 100%

75% acc · 38%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Justin Tafa rounds

even

Parker Porter rounds

Round 1Justin Tafa edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 16

Sig Strikes

7 / 16

50%

Sig Str %

43%

8 / 16

Total Strikes

7 / 16

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Parker Porter	7 / 16	7 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Justin Tafa	8 / 16	8 / 16	0 / 0	0

Justin Tafa

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

Parker Porter

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8