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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Justin Tafa won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1495
Justin Tafa
Elo1431
Harry Hunsucker

Justin TafavsHarry HunsuckerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Saturday, December 18, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Justin Tafa won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:53

Model Prediction: Justin Tafa wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Justin Tafa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Tafa at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Justin Tafa is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Harry Hunsucker has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Justin Tafa has 53pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Justin Tafa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Justin Tafa
Red Corner
VS
Harry Hunsucker
Blue Corner
-320
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
1495
Elo
1431
32
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin TafaL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Jared Vanderaa · May 21
W
KOvs Parker Porter · Feb 23
W
KOvs Austen Lane · Sep 23
L
vs Karl Williams · Mar 24
L
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Feb 25
latest
Harry HunsuckerL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Mar 21
L
KOvs Tyson Pedro · Aug 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin TafaMetricHarry Hunsucker
4.05
Strikes / min
3.54
5.11
Strikes absorbed / min
6.53
47%
Strike defense
42%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.00
53%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
2.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.06Δ 1.93 — meaningful gap-2.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1473 vs 1487Strikes4.1 vs 3.5Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 2.00Form-0.7 vs -1.0
Justin TafaHarry Hunsucker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Justin Tafa(9 fights)Harry Hunsucker(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +63.3|Blue -63.3
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -63.0|Blue +63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin TafaTargetHarry Hunsucker

By target zone

4
44% acc · 80%
Head
2
40% acc · 40%
1
100% acc · 20%
Body
1
100% acc · 20%
0
Leg
2
67% acc · 40%

By position

4
50% acc · 80%
Distance
5
56% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
1
50% acc · 20%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Justin Tafa rounds
0
even
0
Harry Hunsucker rounds
Round 1Justin Tafa edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control1:02
Knockdowns1
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
5 / 10
Sig Strikes
5 / 9
50%
Sig Str %
55%
5 / 10
Total Strikes
5 / 9
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
1:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Harry Hunsucker5 / 95 / 90 / 11
1Justin Tafa5 / 105 / 100 / 00

Justin Tafa

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9

Harry Hunsucker

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3