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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Justin Tafa won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1495

Elo1449

Justin TafavsAusten LaneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Saturday, September 9, 2023Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Justin Tafa won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:22

Model Prediction: Justin Tafa wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Justin Tafa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Tafa at -198 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Austen Lane enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Justin Tafa is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Austen Lane has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Justin Tafa has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Tafa (53.5%).
Austen Lane has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Justin Tafa

Red Corner

Austen Lane

Blue Corner

-198

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+164

(38%)

1495

Elo

1449

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'6"

187.96 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin TafaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jared Vanderaa · May 21

KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Dec 21

KOvs Parker Porter · Feb 23

vs Karl Williams · Mar 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Feb 25

latest

Austen LaneL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Apr 24

vs Robelis Despaigne · Oct 24

KOvs Mario Pinto · Mar 25

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · Jul 25

KOvs Iwo Baraniewski · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin TafaMetricAusten Lane

4.05

Strikes / min

2.70

5.11

Strikes absorbed / min

2.45

47%

Strike defense

39%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.50

53%

Takedown defense

33%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.06Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Justin TafaAusten Lane

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Justin Tafa(9 fights)Austen Lane(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +46.2|Blue -46.2

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin TafaTargetAusten Lane

By target zone

82% acc · 82%

Head

33% acc · 43%

Body

50% acc · 14%

67% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 43%

By position

67% acc · 55%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 45%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Justin Tafa rounds

even

Austen Lane rounds

Round 1Justin Tafa edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 14

Sig Strikes

7 / 14

78%

Sig Str %

50%

11 / 14

Total Strikes

7 / 15

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Austen Lane	7 / 14	7 / 15	0 / 0	0
1	Justin Tafa	11 / 14	11 / 14	0 / 0	0

Justin Tafa

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

Austen Lane

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights6