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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Ulka Sasaki won · Submission R2
Elo1366
Justin Scoggins
Elo1491

Justin ScogginsvsUlka SasakiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · Saturday, June 17, 2017Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Ulka Sasaki won

Submission · Round 2 · 3:19

Model Prediction: Justin Scoggins wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Ulka Sasaki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Scoggins at -525 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ulka Sasaki threatens submissions; Justin Scoggins has lost 60% of fights by sub.
  • Ulka Sasaki has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Justin Scoggins
Red Corner
VS
Ulka Sasaki
Blue Corner
-525
(84%)
Vegas Odds
+415
(19%)
1366
Elo
1491
34
Age
27
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
5'10"
167.64 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin ScogginsL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs John Moraga · Sep 14
W
DECvs Joshua Sampo · May 15
W
vs Ray Borg · Feb 16
L
SUBvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 16
L
vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 18
latest
Ulka Sasaki
oldest →
W
SUBvs Willie Gates · May 16
L
DECvs Wilson Reis · Feb 17
L
SUBvs Jussier Formiga · Sep 17
W
SUBvs Jenel Lausa · Jun 18
L
SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Nov 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin ScogginsMetricUlka Sasaki
3.56
Strikes / min
—
2.16
Strikes absorbed / min
—
55%
Strike defense
—
3.42
TDs / 15 min
—
82%
Takedown defense
—
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1512 vs 1487Strikes41.4 vs 14.0Takedowns3.1 vs 1.2Sub Atts0.43 vs 0.60Form-0.3 vs -0.4
Justin ScogginsUlka Sasaki

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Justin Scoggins(9 fights)Ulka Sasaki(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -124.9|Blue +124.9
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Justin Scoggins

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights9

Ulka Sasaki

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights1