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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Said Nurmagomedov won · S-DEC R3

Elo1366

Elo1493

Justin ScogginsvsSaid NurmagomedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · Saturday, July 14, 2018Boise, Idaho, USA

Official fight result

Said Nurmagomedov won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJustin Scoggins: WrestlervsSaid Nurmagomedov: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Justin Scoggins wins(63.6%)

Actual result: Said Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Scoggins at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Said Nurmagomedov threatens submissions; Justin Scoggins has lost 60% of fights by sub.
Justin Scoggins has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Scoggins (53.5%).
Said Nurmagomedov has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Justin Scoggins

Red Corner

Said Nurmagomedov

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1366

Elo

1493

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

167.64 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin ScogginsL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs John Moraga · Sep 14

DECvs Joshua Sampo · May 15

vs Ray Borg · Feb 16

SUBvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 16

SUBvs Ulka Sasaki · Jun 17

latest

Said NurmagomedovL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Dec 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · Mar 23

SUBvs Muin Gafurov · Oct 23

vs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 25

vs Bryce Mitchell · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin ScogginsMetricSaid Nurmagomedov

3.56

Strikes / min

3.08

2.16

Strikes absorbed / min

2.05

55%

Strike defense

55%

3.42

TDs / 15 min

0.86

82%

Takedown defense

63%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.40evenly matched on net striking+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Justin ScogginsSaid Nurmagomedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Justin Scoggins(9 fights)Said Nurmagomedov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -126.9|Blue +126.9

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -47.8|Blue +47.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin ScogginsTargetSaid Nurmagomedov

By target zone

29% acc · 56%

Head

48% acc · 62%

29% acc · 13%

Body

81% acc · 20%

91% acc · 31%

Leg

86% acc · 18%

By position

35% acc · 91%

Distance

49% acc · 69%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

93% acc · 22%

50% acc · 3%

Ground

86% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Justin Scoggins rounds

even

Said Nurmagomedov rounds

Round 1Said Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Said Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Said Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 87

Sig Strikes

65 / 113

37%

Sig Str %

58%

32 / 87

Total Strikes

86 / 134

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 11

TD %

6.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Said Nurmagomedov	21 / 36	21 / 36	0 / 3
1	Justin Scoggins	8 / 32	8 / 32	0 / 0
2	Said Nurmagomedov	20 / 43	22 / 45	0 / 3
2	Justin Scoggins	14 / 31	14 / 31	0 / 1
3	Said Nurmagomedov	24 / 34	43 / 53	1 / 5
3	Justin Scoggins	10 / 24	10 / 24	0 / 0

Justin Scoggins

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9

Said Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11