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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Justin Scoggins won · Decision R3
Elo1366
Justin Scoggins
Elo1355

Justin ScogginsvsJoshua SampoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · Saturday, May 23, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Justin Scoggins won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Justin Scoggins wins(73.8%)

Actual result: Justin Scoggins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Scoggins at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Justin Scoggins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Joshua Sampo threatens submissions; Justin Scoggins has lost 60% of fights by sub.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Justin Scoggins (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Justin Scoggins
Red Corner
VS
Joshua Sampo
Blue Corner
-500
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+400
(20%)
1366
Elo
1355
34
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'4"
167.64 cm
Reach
162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin ScogginsL3 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs John Moraga · Sep 14
W
vs Ray Borg · Feb 16
L
SUBvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 16
L
SUBvs Ulka Sasaki · Jun 17
L
vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 18
latest
Joshua SampoL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Ryan Benoit · Nov 13
L
DECvs Zach Makovsky · Feb 14
L
SUBvs Paddy Holohan · Jul 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin ScogginsMetricJoshua Sampo
3.56
Strikes / min
—
2.16
Strikes absorbed / min
—
55%
Strike defense
—
3.42
TDs / 15 min
—
82%
Takedown defense
—
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1497 vs 1484Strikes31.3 vs 16.7Takedowns4.0 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.75 vs 2.00Form-0.3 vs -0.5
Justin ScogginsJoshua Sampo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Justin Scoggins(9 fights)Joshua Sampo(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +11.7|Blue -11.7
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -48.0|Blue +48.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Justin Scoggins

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights9

Joshua Sampo

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights2