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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Ortiz won · S-DEC R3

Elo1366

Elo1491

Justin ScogginsvsDustin OrtizUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · Sunday, July 6, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Ortiz won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJustin Scoggins: WrestlervsDustin Ortiz: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Justin Scoggins wins(51.5%)

Actual result: Dustin Ortiz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Scoggins at -290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Scoggins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Justin Scoggins has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Scoggins (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Justin Scoggins

Red Corner

Dustin Ortiz

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1366

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin ScogginsL3 streak

oldest →

DECvs Joshua Sampo · May 15

vs Ray Borg · Feb 16

SUBvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 16

SUBvs Ulka Sasaki · Jun 17

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 18

latest

Dustin Ortiz

oldest →

SUBvs Brandon Moreno · Apr 17

KOvs Hector Sandoval · Aug 17

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 18

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 18

vs Joseph Benavidez · Jan 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin ScogginsMetricDustin Ortiz

3.56

Strikes / min

2.94

2.16

Strikes absorbed / min

2.17

55%

Strike defense

56%

3.42

TDs / 15 min

3.01

82%

Takedown defense

52%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.40evenly matched on net striking+0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Justin ScogginsDustin Ortiz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Justin Scoggins(9 fights)Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -125.1|Blue +125.1

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin ScogginsTargetDustin Ortiz

By target zone

64% acc · 67%

Head

48% acc · 49%

71% acc · 21%

Body

91% acc · 51%

60% acc · 13%

Leg

0% acc

By position

45% acc · 42%

Distance

35% acc · 23%

92% acc · 46%

Clinch

87% acc · 33%

100% acc · 13%

Ground

74% acc · 44%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Justin Scoggins rounds

even

Dustin Ortiz rounds

Round 1Dustin Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns3

Control2:11

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:12Control

Round 2Dustin Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:46

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:40Control

Round 3Justin Scoggins edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control1:44

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 37

Sig Strikes

39 / 64

72%

Sig Str %

60.3%

32 / 45

Total Strikes

100 / 134

5 / 8

TDs

2 / 7

63%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:41

Ctrl Time

7:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Ortiz	15 / 19	20 / 26	1 / 2	0
1	Justin Scoggins	7 / 7	10 / 10	3 / 5	2
2	Dustin Ortiz	17 / 25	48 / 63	1 / 2	0
2	Justin Scoggins	5 / 8	7 / 10	0 / 0	0
3	Dustin Ortiz	7 / 20	32 / 45	0 / 3	0
3	Justin Scoggins	12 / 22	15 / 25	2 / 3	1

Justin Scoggins

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9

Dustin Ortiz

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights14