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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Justin Salas won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1356
Elo1353
Ben Wall

Justin SalasvsBen WallUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · Saturday, May 10, 2014Cincinnati, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Justin Salas won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:41

Model Prediction: Justin Salas wins(72.8%)

Actual result: Justin Salas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Salas at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Justin Salas enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Justin Salas has 39pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Ben Wall has 100pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Justin Salas (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Justin Salas
Red Corner
VS
Ben Wall
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
1356
Elo
1353
44
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin SalasL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Tim Means · Jun 12
W
vs Aaron Riley · Jul 13
L
SUBvs Thiago Tavares · Nov 13
L
KOvs Joe Proctor · Jul 14
L
KOvs Jason Saggo · Mar 16
latest
Ben Wall
oldest →
L
KOvs Alex Garcia · Dec 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin SalasMetricBen Wall
3.42
Strikes / min
1.47
2.96
Strikes absorbed / min
8.53
68%
Strike defense
29%
2.43
TDs / 15 min
0.00
0%
Takedown defense
100%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46Δ 7.52 — meaningful gap-7.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1482Strikes28.3 vs 1.0Takedowns1.8 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.1 vs -1.0
Justin SalasBen Wall

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Justin Salas(7 fights)Ben Wall(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +3.3|Blue -3.3
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +27.0|Blue -27.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin SalasTargetBen Wall

By target zone

10
63% acc · 50%
Head
2
18% acc · 50%
6
100% acc · 30%
Body
2
67% acc · 50%
4
100% acc · 20%
Leg
0

By position

7
58% acc · 35%
Distance
1
9% acc · 25%
7
88% acc · 35%
Clinch
3
100% acc · 75%
6
100% acc · 30%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Justin Salas rounds
0
even
0
Ben Wall rounds
Round 1Justin Salas edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:42
Knockdowns1
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
20 / 26
Sig Strikes
4 / 14
76%
Sig Str %
28%
22 / 28
Total Strikes
5 / 15
0 / 6
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:42
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ben Wall4 / 145 / 150 / 00
1Justin Salas20 / 2622 / 280 / 60

Justin Salas

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights7

Ben Wall

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach—
Fights2