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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Justin Ledet won · SUB R1

Elo1391

Elo1491

Justin LedetvsMark GodbeerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · Saturday, November 19, 2016Belfast, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Justin Ledet won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:16

Style matchupJustin Ledet: StrikervsMark Godbeer: Striker

Two strikers — expect distance work and a kickboxing-style battle.

Model Prediction: Justin Ledet wins(75.4%)

Actual result: Justin Ledet wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Ledet at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Ledet enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Justin Ledet

Red Corner

Mark Godbeer

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1391

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

203.2 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin LedetL4 streak

oldest →

DECvs Zu Anyanwu · Sep 17

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Jul 18

KOvs Johnny Walker · Feb 19

vs Aleksa Camur · Jan 20

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Oct 20

latest

Mark Godbeer

oldest →

vs Daniel Spitz · Mar 17

vs Walt Harris · Nov 17

SUBvs Dmitry Sosnovskiy · Mar 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin LedetMetricMark Godbeer

3.35

Strikes / min

3.97

4.82

Strikes absorbed / min

3.30

49%

Strike defense

54%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

0.00

42%

Takedown defense

28%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.47Δ 2.14 — meaningful gap+0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Justin LedetMark Godbeer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Justin Ledet(7 fights)Mark Godbeer(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -100.3|Blue +100.3

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin LedetTargetMark Godbeer

By target zone

27% acc · 100%

Head

33% acc · 40%

Body

0% acc

Leg

75% acc · 60%

By position

20% acc · 67%

Distance

45% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Justin Ledet rounds

even

Mark Godbeer rounds

Round 1Justin Ledet edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control1:16

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 11

Sig Strikes

5 / 11

27%

Sig Str %

45%

8 / 17

Total Strikes

7 / 13

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:16

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mark Godbeer	5 / 11	7 / 13	0 / 1	0
1	Justin Ledet	3 / 11	8 / 17	1 / 1	1

Justin Ledet

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights7

Mark Godbeer

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4