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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Aleksandar Rakic won · U-DEC R3

Elo1391

Elo1471

Justin LedetvsAleksandar RakicUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · Sunday, July 22, 2018Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

Official fight result

Aleksandar Rakic won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJustin Ledet: StrikervsAleksandar Rakic: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Justin Ledet wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Aleksandar Rakic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Ledet at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Ledet enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Aleksandar Rakic enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Aleksandar Rakic has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Justin Ledet

Red Corner

Aleksandar Rakic

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1391

Elo

1471

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

203.2 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin LedetL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Mark Godbeer · Nov 16

DECvs Zu Anyanwu · Sep 17

KOvs Johnny Walker · Feb 19

vs Aleksa Camur · Jan 20

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Oct 20

latest

Aleksandar RakicL4 streak

oldest →

vs Thiago Santos · Mar 21

KOvs Jan Blachowicz · May 22

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Apr 24

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Oct 24

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin LedetMetricAleksandar Rakic

3.35

Strikes / min

4.13

4.82

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

49%

Strike defense

51%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

0.64

42%

Takedown defense

85%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.47Δ 2.74 — meaningful gap+1.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Justin LedetAleksandar Rakic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Justin Ledet(7 fights)Aleksandar Rakic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -80.7|Blue +80.7

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +3.6|Blue -3.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin LedetTargetAleksandar Rakic

By target zone

50% acc · 100%

Head

72% acc · 85%

Body

100% acc · 5%

0% acc

Leg

65% acc · 11%

By position

46% acc · 100%

Distance

57% acc · 23%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

Ground

80% acc · 75%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Justin Ledet rounds

even

Aleksandar Rakic rounds

Round 1Aleksandar Rakic edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:07Control

Round 2Aleksandar Rakic edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

50Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:35Control

Round 3Aleksandar Rakic edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:41Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 26

Sig Strikes

104 / 144

46.7%

Sig Str %

72.3%

28 / 42

Total Strikes

263 / 317

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 4

TD %

83%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

12:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Aleksandar Rakic	30 / 42	66 / 79	1 / 1
1	Justin Ledet	1 / 3	14 / 16	0 / 1
2	Aleksandar Rakic	50 / 70	115 / 141	0 / 0
2	Justin Ledet	7 / 17	7 / 17	0 / 0
3	Aleksandar Rakic	24 / 32	82 / 97	2 / 3
3	Justin Ledet	4 / 6	7 / 9	0 / 0

Justin Ledet

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights7

Aleksandar Rakic

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights11