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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Max Holloway won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1352
Elo1517
Max Holloway editorial illustration

Justin LawrencevsMax HollowayUFC Prediction Result

UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · Saturday, August 11, 2012Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:49

Style matchupJustin Lawrence: Elusive strikervsMax Holloway: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(67.3%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Max Holloway is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Justin Lawrence has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Justin Lawrence
Red Corner
VS
Max Holloway
Blue Corner
+150
(40%)
Vegas Odds
-160
(62%)
1352
Elo
1517
36
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'11"
170.18 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin Lawrence
oldest →
W
KOvs John Cofer · Jun 12
L
SUBvs Daniel Pineda · Apr 13
latest
Max Holloway
oldest →
W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24
W
vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25
L
vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26
W
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin LawrenceMetricMax Holloway
3.84
Strikes / min
6.91
2.83
Strikes absorbed / min
4.61
67%
Strike defense
58%
0.72
TDs / 15 min
0.23
73%
Takedown defense
81%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.01Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap+2.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1502Strikes54.0 vs 64.5Takedowns1.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 0.2
Justin LawrenceMax Holloway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901500151015201530← oldermost recent →
Justin Lawrence(3 fights)Max Holloway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -165.4|Blue +165.4
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin LawrenceTargetMax Holloway

By target zone

26
37% acc · 81%
Head
18
16% acc · 62%
3
20% acc · 9%
Body
8
73% acc · 28%
3
60% acc · 9%
Leg
3
100% acc · 10%

By position

32
36% acc · 100%
Distance
23
21% acc · 79%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
6
38% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Justin Lawrence rounds
0
even
1
Max Holloway rounds
Round 1Justin Lawrence edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control0:09
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
32 / 90
Sig Strikes
29 / 124
34.5%
Sig Str %
22.5%
32 / 92
Total Strikes
29 / 124
1 / 4
TDs
0 / 0
25%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:09
Ctrl Time
0:05

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Max Holloway10 / 4710 / 470 / 00
1Justin Lawrence12 / 3712 / 391 / 20
2Max Holloway19 / 7719 / 770 / 00
2Justin Lawrence20 / 5320 / 530 / 20

Justin Lawrence

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights3

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights33