Lightweight

3 Rounds

Justin Lawrence won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1352

Justin LawrencevsJohn CoferUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale · Friday, June 1, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Justin Lawrence won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:19

Style matchupJustin Lawrence: Elusive strikervsJohn Cofer: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: John Cofer wins(55.5%)

Actual result: Justin Lawrence wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Cofer at +315 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Lawrence is a KO finisher (100% of wins). John Cofer has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors John Cofer (53.5%).
John Cofer has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Justin Lawrence

Red Corner

John Cofer

Blue Corner

-345

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+315

(24%)

1352

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'9"

170.18 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin LawrenceL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Max Holloway · Aug 12

SUBvs Daniel Pineda · Apr 13

latest

John Cofer

oldest →

SUBvs Mike Rio · Dec 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin LawrenceMetricJohn Cofer

3.84

Strikes / min

2.73

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.43

67%

Strike defense

62%

0.72

TDs / 15 min

1.22

73%

Takedown defense

64%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.01Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap-0.70

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Justin Lawrence(3 fights)John Cofer(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin LawrenceTargetJohn Cofer

By target zone

32% acc · 81%

Head

26% acc · 56%

57% acc · 15%

Body

61% acc · 31%

67% acc · 4%

Leg

83% acc · 14%

By position

33% acc · 85%

Distance

33% acc · 86%

71% acc · 9%

Clinch

63% acc · 14%

38% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Justin Lawrence rounds

even

John Cofer rounds

Round 1Justin Lawrence edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control0:19

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 2Justin Lawrence edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:32

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 3Justin Lawrence edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 155

Sig Strikes

36 / 101

35.3%

Sig Str %

24%

59 / 163

Total Strikes

39 / 107

1 / 3

TDs

2 / 4

33%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:53

Ctrl Time

0:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	John Cofer	18 / 49	19 / 51	1 / 2
1	Justin Lawrence	28 / 71	29 / 72	1 / 3
2	John Cofer	18 / 50	20 / 54	1 / 2
2	Justin Lawrence	23 / 76	27 / 83	0 / 0
3	John Cofer	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0
3	Justin Lawrence	3 / 8	3 / 8	0 / 0

Justin Lawrence

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3

John Cofer

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights2