Featherweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Pineda won · SUB R1

Elo1352

Elo1489

Justin LawrencevsDaniel PinedaUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale · Saturday, April 13, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Pineda won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:35

Style matchupJustin Lawrence: Elusive strikervsDaniel Pineda: Submission grappler

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Justin Lawrence wins(54.4%)

Actual result: Daniel Pineda wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Lawrence at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Pineda enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daniel Pineda threatens submissions; Justin Lawrence has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Justin Lawrence has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Justin Lawrence has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Justin Lawrence

Red Corner

Daniel Pineda

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1352

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin Lawrence

oldest →

KOvs John Cofer · Jun 12

KOvs Max Holloway · Aug 12

latest

Daniel PinedaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 20

SUBvs Tucker Lutz · Mar 23

vs Alex Caceres · Jun 23

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 24

vs Darren Elkins · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin LawrenceMetricDaniel Pineda

3.84

Strikes / min

2.85

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

67%

Strike defense

45%

0.72

TDs / 15 min

1.42

73%

Takedown defense

54%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.01Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Justin LawrenceDaniel Pineda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Justin Lawrence(3 fights)Daniel Pineda(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.0|Blue +137.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin LawrenceTargetDaniel Pineda

By target zone

0% acc

Head

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 100%

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 100%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Justin Lawrence rounds

even

Daniel Pineda rounds

Round 1Daniel Pineda edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

1Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 2

Sig Strikes

1 / 2

Sig Str %

50%

0 / 2

Total Strikes

4 / 5

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 3

—

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Pineda	1 / 2	4 / 5	2 / 3	1
1	Justin Lawrence	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0	0

Justin Lawrence

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3

Daniel Pineda

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13