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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Justin Gaethje won · M-DEC R3

Elo1541

Elo1509

Justin GaethjevsRafael FizievUFC Prediction Result

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Saturday, March 18, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Justin Gaethje won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJustin Gaethje: Pressure fightervsRafael Fiziev: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Justin Gaethje wins(67.6%)

Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Gaethje at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Justin Gaethje is a KO finisher (64% of wins). Rafael Fiziev has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Rafael Fiziev is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Justin Gaethje has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Rafael Fiziev has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Fiziev (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Justin Gaethje

Red Corner

Rafael Fiziev

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1541

Elo

1509

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin GaethjeW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23

KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24

vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25

vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26

latest

Rafael Fiziev

oldest →

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Sep 23

vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 25

vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Jun 25

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jan 26

KOvs Manuel Torres · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin GaethjeMetricRafael Fiziev

6.48

Strikes / min

4.71

7.05

Strikes absorbed / min

4.84

51%

Strike defense

49%

0.33

TDs / 15 min

0.83

74%

Takedown defense

90%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.57evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Justin GaethjeRafael Fiziev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Justin Gaethje(10 fights)Rafael Fiziev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +31.3|Blue -31.3

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +2.5|Blue -2.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin GaethjeTargetRafael Fiziev

By target zone

57% acc · 79%

Head

38% acc · 39%

93% acc · 14%

Body

85% acc · 54%

57% acc · 8%

Leg

88% acc · 7%

By position

57% acc · 82%

Distance

54% acc · 84%

79% acc · 18%

Clinch

89% acc · 16%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Justin Gaethje rounds

even

Rafael Fiziev rounds

Round 1Rafael Fiziev edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rafael Fiziev edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Justin Gaethje edged it

Sig. strikes53

Takedowns1

Control0:05

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

103 / 171

Sig Strikes

97 / 169

59.7%

Sig Str %

57.7%

106 / 174

Total Strikes

97 / 169

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafael Fiziev	27 / 50	27 / 50	0 / 0
1	Justin Gaethje	23 / 36	23 / 36	0 / 1
2	Rafael Fiziev	32 / 49	32 / 49	0 / 0
2	Justin Gaethje	27 / 48	29 / 50	0 / 0
3	Rafael Fiziev	38 / 70	38 / 70	0 / 0
3	Justin Gaethje	53 / 87	54 / 88	1 / 2

Justin Gaethje

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Rafael Fiziev

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights13