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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Justin Gaethje won · U-DEC R3

Elo1541

Elo1509

Justin GaethjevsRafael FizievUFC Prediction Result

UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, March 8, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Justin Gaethje won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJustin Gaethje: Pressure fightervsRafael Fiziev: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Justin Gaethje wins(76.6%)

Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Gaethje at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Gaethje is a KO finisher (64% of wins). Rafael Fiziev has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Rafael Fiziev is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Justin Gaethje has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Rafael Fiziev has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Fiziev (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Justin Gaethje

Red Corner

Rafael Fiziev

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-154

(61%)

1541

Elo

1509

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin GaethjeW2 streak

oldest →

vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 23

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23

KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24

vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26

latest

Rafael Fiziev

oldest →

vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 23

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Sep 23

vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Jun 25

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jan 26

KOvs Manuel Torres · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin GaethjeMetricRafael Fiziev

6.48

Strikes / min

4.71

7.05

Strikes absorbed / min

4.84

51%

Strike defense

49%

0.33

TDs / 15 min

0.83

74%

Takedown defense

90%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.57evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Justin GaethjeRafael Fiziev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Justin Gaethje(10 fights)Rafael Fiziev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +31.3|Blue -31.3

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -203.0|Blue +203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin GaethjeTargetRafael Fiziev

By target zone

48% acc · 78%

Head

33% acc · 29%

100% acc · 13%

Body

83% acc · 63%

88% acc · 10%

Leg

83% acc · 7%

By position

45% acc · 57%

Distance

49% acc · 72%

76% acc · 36%

Clinch

100% acc · 21%

63% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Justin Gaethje rounds

even

Rafael Fiziev rounds

Round 1Rafael Fiziev edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:14

21Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 2Justin Gaethje edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:43

Knockdowns1

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Justin Gaethje edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:35

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 134

Sig Strikes

68 / 119

53.3%

Sig Str %

56.7%

98 / 163

Total Strikes

81 / 134

0 / 3

TDs

2 / 2

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:32

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafael Fiziev	21 / 32	22 / 33	2 / 2
1	Justin Gaethje	12 / 21	17 / 27	0 / 1
2	Rafael Fiziev	17 / 40	17 / 40	0 / 0
2	Justin Gaethje	21 / 52	34 / 65	0 / 0
3	Rafael Fiziev	30 / 47	42 / 61	0 / 0
3	Justin Gaethje	39 / 61	47 / 71	0 / 2

Justin Gaethje

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Rafael Fiziev

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights13