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Lightweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Justin Gaethje won · U-DEC R5
Elo1541
Justin Gaethje
Elo1541
Paddy Pimblett

Justin GaethjevsPaddy PimblettUFC Prediction Result

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · Saturday, January 24, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Justin Gaethje won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJustin Gaethje: Pressure fightervsPaddy Pimblett: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Justin Gaethje wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Gaethje at +200 American odds

+$200 profit

$300 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Paddy Pimblett enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Paddy Pimblett threatens submissions; Justin Gaethje has lost 40% of fights by sub.
  • Justin Gaethje has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Justin Gaethje
Red Corner
VS
Paddy Pimblett
Blue Corner
+200
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-245
(71%)
1541
Elo
1541
37
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin GaethjeW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 23
W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23
L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24
W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25
W
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26
latest
Paddy PimblettW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Jared Gordon · Dec 22
W
vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 23
W
SUBvs King Green · Jul 24
W
KOvs Michael Chandler · Apr 25
W
SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin GaethjeMetricPaddy Pimblett
6.48
Strikes / min
5.49
7.05
Strikes absorbed / min
3.89
51%
Strike defense
42%
0.33
TDs / 15 min
0.69
74%
Takedown defense
44%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.57Δ 2.17 — meaningful gap+1.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1625 vs 1620Strikes6.5 vs 5.5Takedowns0.3 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.20Form0.6 vs 1.0
Justin GaethjePaddy Pimblett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901508152515431560← oldermost recent →
Justin Gaethje(10 fights)Paddy Pimblett(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin GaethjeTargetPaddy Pimblett

By target zone

120
54% acc · 83%
Head
83
38% acc · 53%
15
71% acc · 10%
Body
48
76% acc · 31%
9
82% acc · 6%
Leg
25
93% acc · 16%

By position

102
52% acc · 71%
Distance
140
49% acc · 90%
20
74% acc · 14%
Clinch
16
59% acc · 10%
22
76% acc · 15%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Justin Gaethje rounds
1
even
1
Paddy Pimblett rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control1:01
Knockdowns1
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Justin Gaethje edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns2
Control2:23
Knockdowns1
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Paddy Pimblett edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
41Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Justin Gaethje edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns1
Control1:26
35Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Justin Gaethje edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control1:05
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:48Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
0
144 / 254
Sig Strikes
156 / 311
56.6%
Sig Str %
49.4%
200 / 313
Total Strikes
170 / 326
3 / 3
TDs
0 / 5
100%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
5:55
Ctrl Time
0:48

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Justin Gaethje27 / 4540 / 580 / 00
1Paddy Pimblett37 / 6538 / 660 / 10
2Justin Gaethje32 / 5052 / 702 / 20
2Paddy Pimblett22 / 4725 / 500 / 00
3Paddy Pimblett41 / 7842 / 790 / 00
3Justin Gaethje24 / 5325 / 540 / 00
4Justin Gaethje32 / 5444 / 661 / 10
4Paddy Pimblett35 / 5836 / 590 / 10
5Justin Gaethje29 / 5239 / 650 / 00
5Paddy Pimblett21 / 6329 / 720 / 30

Justin Gaethje

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15

Paddy Pimblett

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights9