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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Justin Gaethje won · U-DEC R3

Elo1541

Elo1454

Justin GaethjevsMichael ChandlerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Saturday, November 6, 2021New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Justin Gaethje won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJustin Gaethje: Pressure fightervsMichael Chandler: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Justin Gaethje wins(63.7%)

Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Gaethje at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Michael Chandler enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Justin Gaethje is a KO finisher (64% of wins). Michael Chandler has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Michael Chandler is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Justin Gaethje has lost 60% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Justin Gaethje

Red Corner

Michael Chandler

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1541

Elo

1454

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin GaethjeW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23

KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24

vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25

vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26

latest

Michael ChandlerL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tony Ferguson · May 22

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Nov 22

vs Charles Oliveira · Nov 24

KOvs Paddy Pimblett · Apr 25

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin GaethjeMetricMichael Chandler

6.48

Strikes / min

4.04

7.05

Strikes absorbed / min

4.52

51%

Strike defense

43%

0.33

TDs / 15 min

1.96

74%

Takedown defense

61%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.57evenly matched on net striking-0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Justin GaethjeMichael Chandler

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Justin Gaethje(10 fights)Michael Chandler(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +86.5|Blue -86.5

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +3.1|Blue -3.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red +203.0|Blue -203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin GaethjeTargetMichael Chandler

By target zone

58% acc · 72%

Head

32% acc · 62%

58% acc · 6%

Body

80% acc · 27%

93% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

102

62% acc · 88%

Distance

41% acc · 96%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

64% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Justin Gaethje rounds

even

Michael Chandler rounds

Round 1Michael Chandler edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

49Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Justin Gaethje edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control1:09

Knockdowns1

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Justin Gaethje edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:28

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

116 / 183

Sig Strikes

103 / 245

65.3%

Sig Str %

40.3%

133 / 205

Total Strikes

104 / 246

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 6

—

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:37

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michael Chandler	49 / 99	50 / 100	0 / 2
1	Justin Gaethje	40 / 77	41 / 78	0 / 0
2	Michael Chandler	24 / 69	24 / 69	0 / 2
2	Justin Gaethje	38 / 60	51 / 73	0 / 0
3	Michael Chandler	30 / 77	30 / 77	1 / 2
3	Justin Gaethje	38 / 46	41 / 54	0 / 0

Justin Gaethje

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Michael Chandler

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7