← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Max Holloway won · KO/TKO R5

Elo1541

Elo1517

Justin GaethjevsMax HollowayUFC Prediction Result

UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Saturday, April 13, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

KO/TKO · Round 5 · 4:59

Style matchupJustin Gaethje: Pressure fightervsMax Holloway: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(61.1%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at +154 American odds

+$154 profit

$254 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Gaethje enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Max Holloway is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Justin Gaethje has lost 60% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Justin Gaethje

Red Corner

Max Holloway

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+154

(39%)

1541

Elo

1517

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin GaethjeW5 streak

oldest →

vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 23

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23

vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25

vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26

latest

Max Holloway

oldest →

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Aug 23

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24

vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25

vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin GaethjeMetricMax Holloway

6.48

Strikes / min

6.91

7.05

Strikes absorbed / min

4.61

51%

Strike defense

58%

0.33

TDs / 15 min

0.23

74%

Takedown defense

81%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.57Δ 2.87 — meaningful gap+2.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Justin GaethjeMax Holloway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Justin Gaethje(10 fights)Max Holloway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +23.1|Blue -23.1

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin GaethjeTargetMax Holloway

By target zone

36% acc · 43%

Head

42% acc · 34%

62% acc · 25%

Body

68% acc · 34%

92% acc · 32%

Leg

83% acc · 31%

By position

103

52% acc · 100%

Distance

181

59% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Justin Gaethje rounds

even

Max Holloway rounds

Round 1Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Even round

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

62Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

103 / 199

Sig Strikes

181 / 309

52.2%

Sig Str %

58.2%

103 / 199

Total Strikes

181 / 309

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Justin Gaethje	12 / 26	12 / 26	0 / 0
1	Max Holloway	25 / 39	25 / 39	0 / 0
2	Max Holloway	30 / 53	30 / 53	0 / 0
2	Justin Gaethje	18 / 26	18 / 26	0 / 0
3	Max Holloway	29 / 53	29 / 53	0 / 0
3	Justin Gaethje	20 / 38	20 / 38	0 / 0
4	Max Holloway	35 / 61	35 / 61	0 / 0
4	Justin Gaethje	35 / 60	35 / 60	0 / 0
5	Justin Gaethje	18 / 49	18 / 49	0 / 0
5	Max Holloway	62 / 103	62 / 103	0 / 0

Justin Gaethje

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights33