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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Justin Gaethje won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1541

Elo1377

Justin GaethjevsJames VickUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · Saturday, August 25, 2018Lincoln, Nebraska, USA

Official fight result

Justin Gaethje won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:27

Style matchupJustin Gaethje: Pressure fightervsJames Vick: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Justin Gaethje wins(51.0%)

Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Gaethje at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
James Vick enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Justin Gaethje is a KO finisher (64% of wins). James Vick has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Justin Gaethje has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
James Vick has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Justin Gaethje

Red Corner

James Vick

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1541

Elo

1377

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'3"

177.8 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin GaethjeW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23

KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24

vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25

vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26

latest

James VickL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joe Duffy · Nov 17

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Feb 18

vs Paul Felder · Feb 19

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jul 19

KOvs Niko Price · Oct 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin GaethjeMetricJames Vick

6.48

Strikes / min

4.13

7.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

51%

Strike defense

60%

0.33

TDs / 15 min

0.26

74%

Takedown defense

57%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.57Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Justin GaethjeJames Vick

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Justin Gaethje(10 fights)James Vick(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +163.7|Blue -163.7

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red +2.7|Blue -2.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -55.0|Blue +55.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin GaethjeTargetJames Vick

By target zone

38% acc · 43%

Head

33% acc · 30%

67% acc · 29%

Body

63% acc · 50%

50% acc · 29%

Leg

67% acc · 20%

By position

43% acc · 86%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Justin Gaethje rounds

even

James Vick rounds

Round 1Justin Gaethje edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 15

Sig Strikes

10 / 20

46%

Sig Str %

50%

7 / 15

Total Strikes

11 / 21

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	James Vick	10 / 20	11 / 21	0 / 0	0
1	Justin Gaethje	7 / 15	7 / 15	0 / 0	0

Justin Gaethje

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

James Vick

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14