Welterweight

3 Rounds

Justin Edwards won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1351

Justin EdwardsvsJorge LopezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · Saturday, September 17, 2011New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Justin Edwards won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJustin Edwards: WrestlervsJorge Lopez: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Justin Edwards wins(70.7%)

Actual result: Justin Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Edwards at +320 American odds

+$320 profit

$420 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jorge Lopez has 54pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Justin Edwards

Red Corner

Jorge Lopez

Blue Corner

+320

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-390

(80%)

1355

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

183 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin EdwardsL3 streak

oldest →

vs John Maguire · Nov 11

SUBvs Josh Neer · Oct 12

KOvs Brandon Thatch · Aug 13

vs Ramsey Nijem · Jan 14

SUBvs Joe Proctor · Jun 15

latest

Jorge Lopez

oldest →

vs Amir Sadollah · May 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin EdwardsMetricJorge Lopez

2.68

Strikes / min

2.47

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

51%

Strike defense

50%

2.14

TDs / 15 min

3.50

27%

Takedown defense

81%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.64evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Justin EdwardsJorge Lopez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Justin Edwards(7 fights)Jorge Lopez(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.3|Blue -3.3

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin EdwardsTargetJorge Lopez

By target zone

40% acc · 49%

Head

62% acc · 81%

100% acc · 41%

Body

100% acc · 12%

67% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

29% acc · 24%

Distance

32% acc · 19%

74% acc · 49%

Clinch

81% acc · 31%

92% acc · 27%

Ground

95% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Justin Edwards rounds

even

Jorge Lopez rounds

Round 1Justin Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control2:09

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:57Control

Round 2Justin Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control2:06

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:14Control

Round 3Jorge Lopez edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:08

21Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 73

Sig Strikes

42 / 63

55.3%

Sig Str %

64.3%

72 / 105

Total Strikes

64 / 87

2 / 13

TDs

3 / 3

33%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:23

Ctrl Time

6:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jorge Lopez	15 / 27	19 / 31	1 / 1	0
1	Justin Edwards	20 / 34	27 / 41	0 / 10	1
2	Jorge Lopez	6 / 11	7 / 13	0 / 0	0
2	Justin Edwards	16 / 30	34 / 49	2 / 3	1
3	Jorge Lopez	21 / 25	38 / 43	2 / 2	0
3	Justin Edwards	5 / 9	11 / 15	0 / 0	0

Justin Edwards

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Jorge Lopez

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach—

Fights2