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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Brandon Thatch won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1355

Elo1359

Justin EdwardsvsBrandon ThatchUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2 · Wednesday, August 28, 2013Indianapolis, Indiana, USA

Official fight result

Brandon Thatch won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:23

Model Prediction: Justin Edwards wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Brandon Thatch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Edwards at +248 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brandon Thatch enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Justin Edwards threatens submissions; Brandon Thatch has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Brandon Thatch has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Thatch (52.9%).
Brandon Thatch has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Justin Edwards

Red Corner

Brandon Thatch

Blue Corner

+248

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-270

(73%)

1355

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

6'2"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin EdwardsL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jorge Lopez · Sep 11

vs John Maguire · Nov 11

SUBvs Josh Neer · Oct 12

vs Ramsey Nijem · Jan 14

SUBvs Joe Proctor · Jun 15

latest

Brandon ThatchL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Paulo Thiago · Nov 13

SUBvs Benson Henderson · Feb 15

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Jul 15

SUBvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Mar 16

SUBvs Niko Price · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin EdwardsMetricBrandon Thatch

2.68

Strikes / min

2.70

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

51%

Strike defense

52%

2.14

TDs / 15 min

1.36

27%

Takedown defense

50%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.64evenly matched on net striking-0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Justin EdwardsBrandon Thatch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Justin Edwards(7 fights)Brandon Thatch(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.1|Blue +4.1

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -48.0|Blue +48.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin EdwardsTargetBrandon Thatch

By target zone

11% acc · 50%

Head

59% acc · 76%

100% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 24%

Leg

By position

14% acc · 50%

Distance

50% acc · 24%

33% acc · 50%

Clinch

75% acc · 53%

Ground

67% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Justin Edwards rounds

even

Brandon Thatch rounds

Round 1Brandon Thatch edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:18Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 10

Sig Strikes

17 / 26

20%

Sig Str %

65%

2 / 10

Total Strikes

24 / 33

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brandon Thatch	17 / 26	24 / 33	1 / 1	0
1	Justin Edwards	2 / 10	2 / 10	0 / 2	0

Justin Edwards

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Brandon Thatch

StanceSwitch

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6