Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jussier Formiga won · U-DEC R3

Elo1385

Elo1359

Jussier FormigavsZach MakovskyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · Saturday, August 16, 2014Bangor, Maine, USA

Official fight result

Jussier Formiga won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Zach Makovsky wins(84.9%)

Actual result: Jussier Formiga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zach Makovsky at -320 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jussier Formiga enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Zach Makovsky enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jussier Formiga has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Zach Makovsky (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jussier Formiga

Red Corner

Zach Makovsky

Blue Corner

+290

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-320

(76%)

1385

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'4"

170.18 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jussier FormigaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 18

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Mar 19

KOvs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 19

vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 20

KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 20

latest

Zach MakovskyL3 streak

oldest →

DECvs Joshua Sampo · Feb 14

vs Tim Elliott · Feb 15

vs John Dodson · May 15

vs Joseph Benavidez · Feb 16

vs Dustin Ortiz · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jussier FormigaMetricZach Makovsky

1.42

Strikes / min

1.94

2.34

Strikes absorbed / min

2.24

64%

Strike defense

62%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

3.71

87%

Takedown defense

56%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92evenly matched on net striking-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jussier FormigaZach Makovsky

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jussier Formiga(10 fights)Zach Makovsky(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +26.2|Blue -26.2

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -29.0|Blue +29.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jussier FormigaTargetZach Makovsky

By target zone

38% acc · 91%

Head

36% acc · 92%

50% acc · 9%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

28% acc · 45%

Distance

24% acc · 44%

100% acc · 18%

Clinch

50% acc · 36%

Ground

58% acc · 56%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jussier Formiga rounds

even

Zach Makovsky rounds

Round 1Jussier Formiga edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control1:54

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control2:45

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Zach Makovsky edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:03

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:14Control

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 28

Sig Strikes

25 / 69

38.3%

Sig Str %

34%

51 / 78

Total Strikes

59 / 107

2 / 4

TDs

1 / 4

50%

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

4:42

Ctrl Time

4:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Zach Makovsky	6 / 16	10 / 20	0 / 0
1	Jussier Formiga	5 / 11	21 / 32	2 / 2
2	Zach Makovsky	4 / 16	6 / 18	1 / 3
2	Jussier Formiga	3 / 9	25 / 36	0 / 0
3	Zach Makovsky	15 / 37	43 / 69	0 / 1
3	Jussier Formiga	3 / 8	5 / 10	0 / 2

Jussier Formiga

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights16

Zach Makovsky

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights7