← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jussier Formiga won · U-DEC R3

Elo1385

Elo1491

Jussier FormigavsWilson ReisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves · Saturday, May 30, 2015Goiania, Goias, Brazil

Official fight result

Jussier Formiga won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Wilson Reis wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Jussier Formiga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Wilson Reis at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jussier Formiga enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jussier Formiga has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Wilson Reis (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jussier Formiga

Red Corner

Wilson Reis

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1385

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'4"

170.18 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jussier FormigaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 18

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Mar 19

KOvs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 19

vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 20

KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 20

latest

Wilson Reis

oldest →

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Apr 17

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Sep 17

vs John Moraga · Apr 18

vs Ben Nguyen · Dec 18

KOvs Alexandre Pantoja · Apr 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jussier FormigaMetricWilson Reis

1.42

Strikes / min

1.83

2.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

64%

Strike defense

55%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

5.15

87%

Takedown defense

47%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92evenly matched on net striking-1.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jussier FormigaWilson Reis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jussier Formiga(10 fights)Wilson Reis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -106.6|Blue +106.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jussier FormigaTargetWilson Reis

By target zone

37% acc · 90%

Head

26% acc · 43%

100% acc · 5%

Body

70% acc · 25%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 32%

By position

35% acc · 76%

Distance

32% acc · 50%

33% acc · 5%

Clinch

75% acc · 43%

80% acc · 19%

Ground

33% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jussier Formiga rounds

even

Wilson Reis rounds

Round 1Jussier Formiga edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:17

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Jussier Formiga edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control0:59

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:39Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Wilson Reis edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control0:16

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:56Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 54

Sig Strikes

28 / 66

46.7%

Sig Str %

47.3%

36 / 71

Total Strikes

45 / 87

4 / 5

TDs

0 / 9

83.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:32

Ctrl Time

4:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Wilson Reis	8 / 31	8 / 31	0 / 3
1	Jussier Formiga	8 / 32	10 / 34	1 / 1
2	Wilson Reis	7 / 11	15 / 21	0 / 4
2	Jussier Formiga	9 / 12	14 / 19	2 / 2
3	Wilson Reis	13 / 24	22 / 35	0 / 2
3	Jussier Formiga	4 / 10	12 / 18	1 / 2

Jussier Formiga

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights16

Wilson Reis

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13