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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Jussier Formiga won · Submission R1
Elo1385
Elo1491

Jussier FormigavsUlka SasakiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · Friday, September 22, 2017Saitama, Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Jussier Formiga won

Submission · Round 1 · 4:30

Model Prediction: Jussier Formiga wins(51.5%)

Actual result: Jussier Formiga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jussier Formiga at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jussier Formiga enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Ulka Sasaki (53.5%).
  • Ulka Sasaki has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jussier Formiga
Red Corner
VS
Ulka Sasaki
Blue Corner
-420
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+335
(23%)
1385
Elo
1491
41
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'5"
Height
5'10"
170.18 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jussier FormigaL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 18
W
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Mar 19
L
KOvs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 19
L
vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 20
L
KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 20
latest
Ulka Sasaki
oldest →
W
SUBvs Willie Gates · May 16
L
DECvs Wilson Reis · Feb 17
W
SUBvs Justin Scoggins · Jun 17
W
SUBvs Jenel Lausa · Jun 18
L
SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Nov 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jussier FormigaMetricUlka Sasaki
1.42
Strikes / min
—
2.34
Strikes absorbed / min
—
64%
Strike defense
—
1.82
TDs / 15 min
—
87%
Takedown defense
—
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1523 vs 1504Strikes14.3 vs 15.2Takedowns1.3 vs 1.3Sub Atts0.33 vs 0.67Form-0.2 vs 0.2
Jussier FormigaUlka Sasaki

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Jussier Formiga(10 fights)Ulka Sasaki(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -106.4|Blue +106.4
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Jussier Formiga

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights16

Ulka Sasaki

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights1