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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Jussier Formiga won · SUB R1
Elo1385
Elo1356

Jussier FormigavsScott JorgensenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2 · Sunday, March 23, 2014Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

Official fight result

Jussier Formiga won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:07

Model Prediction: Scott Jorgensen wins(57.9%)

Actual result: Jussier Formiga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Scott Jorgensen at -185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jussier Formiga enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Scott Jorgensen enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Jussier Formiga has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jussier Formiga
Red Corner
VS
Scott Jorgensen
Blue Corner
+170
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-185
(65%)
1385
Elo
1356
41
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'5"
170.18 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jussier FormigaL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 18
W
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Mar 19
L
KOvs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 19
L
vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 20
L
KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 20
latest
Scott JorgensenL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Zach Makovsky · Dec 13
W
vs Danny Martinez · Jun 14
L
SUBvs Wilson Reis · Oct 14
L
vs Manvel Gamburyan · Jul 15
L
KOvs Alejandro Perez · Nov 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jussier FormigaMetricScott Jorgensen
1.42
Strikes / min
3.37
2.34
Strikes absorbed / min
3.41
64%
Strike defense
65%
1.82
TDs / 15 min
2.61
87%
Takedown defense
59%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.92evenly matched on net striking-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1490 vs 1481Strikes8.3 vs 42.0Takedowns1.3 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.29Form-0.3 vs -0.7
Jussier FormigaScott Jorgensen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Jussier Formiga(10 fights)Scott Jorgensen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +29.1|Blue -29.1
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +101.0|Blue -101.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jussier FormigaTargetScott Jorgensen

By target zone

7
35% acc · 78%
Head
5
22% acc · 83%
2
67% acc · 22%
Body
0
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 17%

By position

6
32% acc · 67%
Distance
6
26% acc · 100%
2
100% acc · 22%
Clinch
0
0% acc
1
50% acc · 11%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Jussier Formiga rounds
0
even
0
Scott Jorgensen rounds
Round 1Jussier Formiga edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control0:45
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
9 / 23
Sig Strikes
6 / 24
39%
Sig Str %
25%
13 / 27
Total Strikes
9 / 27
1 / 4
TDs
0 / 0
25%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:45
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Scott Jorgensen6 / 249 / 270 / 00
1Jussier Formiga9 / 2313 / 271 / 41

Jussier Formiga

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights16

Scott Jorgensen

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights12