Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ray Borg won · U-DEC R3

Elo1385

Elo1492

Jussier FormigavsRay BorgUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · Saturday, March 11, 2017Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Ray Borg won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ray Borg wins(70.4%)

Actual result: Ray Borg wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ray Borg at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jussier Formiga enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jussier Formiga has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jussier Formiga has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jussier Formiga has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jussier Formiga

Red Corner

Ray Borg

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1385

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

170.18 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jussier FormigaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 18

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Mar 19

KOvs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 19

vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 20

KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 20

latest

Ray Borg

oldest →

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Oct 17

vs Casey Kenney · Mar 19

vs Gabriel Silva · Jul 19

vs Rogerio Bontorin · Feb 20

vs Ricky Simon · May 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jussier FormigaMetricRay Borg

1.42

Strikes / min

1.52

2.34

Strikes absorbed / min

1.93

64%

Strike defense

48%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

3.89

87%

Takedown defense

46%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92evenly matched on net striking-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jussier FormigaRay Borg

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jussier Formiga(10 fights)Ray Borg(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -107.5|Blue +107.5

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red +97.0|Blue -97.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jussier FormigaTargetRay Borg

By target zone

32% acc · 47%

Head

32% acc · 61%

89% acc · 27%

Body

71% acc · 33%

89% acc · 27%

Leg

67% acc · 6%

By position

43% acc · 77%

Distance

14% acc · 19%

88% acc · 23%

Clinch

67% acc · 39%

0% acc

Ground

88% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jussier Formiga rounds

even

Ray Borg rounds

Round 1Jussier Formiga edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:03

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jussier Formiga edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:10

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:44Control

Round 3Ray Borg edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control2:11

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:39Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 62

Sig Strikes

36 / 88

48.5%

Sig Str %

48.3%

44 / 77

Total Strikes

53 / 105

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 6

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:24

Ctrl Time

4:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ray Borg	14 / 43	15 / 44	0 / 0
1	Jussier Formiga	17 / 29	28 / 40	0 / 2
2	Ray Borg	7 / 28	8 / 29	0 / 5
2	Jussier Formiga	13 / 33	15 / 36	0 / 1
3	Ray Borg	15 / 17	30 / 32	0 / 1
3	Jussier Formiga	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0

Jussier Formiga

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights16

Ray Borg

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights12