Flyweight

3 Rounds

Joseph Benavidez won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1385

Elo1397

Jussier FormigavsJoseph BenavidezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, June 29, 2019Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

Official fight result

Joseph Benavidez won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:47

Model Prediction: Joseph Benavidez wins(67.3%)

Actual result: Joseph Benavidez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joseph Benavidez at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joseph Benavidez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jussier Formiga has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Benavidez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jussier Formiga

Red Corner

Joseph Benavidez

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1385

Elo

1397

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'4"

170.18 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jussier FormigaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ben Nguyen · Feb 18

vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 18

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Mar 19

vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 20

KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 20

latest

Joseph BenavidezL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Perez · Nov 18

vs Dustin Ortiz · Jan 19

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 20

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jul 20

vs Askar Askarov · Mar 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jussier FormigaMetricJoseph Benavidez

1.42

Strikes / min

3.52

2.34

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

64%

Strike defense

61%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

1.41

87%

Takedown defense

62%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jussier FormigaJoseph Benavidez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jussier Formiga(10 fights)Joseph Benavidez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -12.1|Blue +12.1

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jussier FormigaTargetJoseph Benavidez

By target zone

32% acc · 100%

Head

35% acc · 54%

0% acc

Body

61% acc · 28%

Leg

60% acc · 18%

By position

31% acc · 100%

Distance

41% acc · 88%

Clinch

75% acc · 6%

Ground

75% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jussier Formiga rounds

even

Joseph Benavidez rounds

Round 1Joseph Benavidez edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:19

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:51Control

Round 2Joseph Benavidez edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:08

Knockdowns0

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:12Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 48

Sig Strikes

50 / 115

31%

Sig Str %

43%

15 / 48

Total Strikes

72 / 138

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:27

Ctrl Time

2:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joseph Benavidez	21 / 52	35 / 67	0 / 0
1	Jussier Formiga	7 / 26	7 / 26	0 / 1
2	Joseph Benavidez	29 / 63	37 / 71	0 / 0
2	Jussier Formiga	8 / 22	8 / 22	1 / 2

Jussier Formiga

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights16

Joseph Benavidez

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights21