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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Henry Cejudo won · S-DEC R3

Elo1385

Elo1472

Jussier FormigavsHenry CejudoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum · Saturday, November 21, 2015Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico

Official fight result

Henry Cejudo won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Henry Cejudo wins(59.2%)

Actual result: Henry Cejudo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Henry Cejudo at -550 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jussier Formiga enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Henry Cejudo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jussier Formiga has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jussier Formiga

Red Corner

Henry Cejudo

Blue Corner

+425

(19%)

Vegas Odds

-550

(85%)

1385

Elo

1472

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

170.18 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jussier FormigaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 18

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Mar 19

KOvs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 19

vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 20

KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 20

latest

Henry CejudoL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Cruz · May 20

vs Aljamain Sterling · May 23

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 24

vs Song Yadong · Feb 25

vs Payton Talbott · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jussier FormigaMetricHenry Cejudo

1.42

Strikes / min

3.83

2.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.84

64%

Strike defense

57%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

1.78

87%

Takedown defense

72%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92evenly matched on net striking-0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jussier FormigaHenry Cejudo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jussier Formiga(10 fights)Henry Cejudo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -87.2|Blue +87.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -2.3|Blue +2.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jussier FormigaTargetHenry Cejudo

By target zone

18% acc · 48%

Head

17% acc · 26%

65% acc · 44%

Body

77% acc · 70%

50% acc · 8%

Leg

25% acc · 5%

By position

18% acc · 52%

Distance

20% acc · 33%

75% acc · 48%

Clinch

71% acc · 67%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jussier Formiga rounds

even

Henry Cejudo rounds

Round 1Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 2Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 87

Sig Strikes

43 / 110

28.3%

Sig Str %

43.3%

39 / 102

Total Strikes

71 / 140

0 / 3

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Henry Cejudo	15 / 43	20 / 48	1 / 1
1	Jussier Formiga	9 / 29	13 / 34	0 / 0
2	Henry Cejudo	14 / 46	18 / 50	0 / 0
2	Jussier Formiga	11 / 40	15 / 44	0 / 0
3	Henry Cejudo	14 / 21	33 / 42	1 / 2
3	Jussier Formiga	5 / 18	11 / 24	0 / 3

Jussier Formiga

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights16

Henry Cejudo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights16