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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Jussier Formiga won · U-DEC R3
Elo1385
Elo1491
Dustin Ortiz

Jussier FormigavsDustin OrtizUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · Saturday, September 24, 2016Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Jussier Formiga won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Dustin Ortiz wins(58.0%)

Actual result: Jussier Formiga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Ortiz at +175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jussier Formiga enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Dustin Ortiz is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Jussier Formiga has lost 57% of fights by KO.
  • Jussier Formiga has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jussier Formiga
Red Corner
VS
Dustin Ortiz
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
1385
Elo
1491
41
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'5"
170.18 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jussier FormigaL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 18
W
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Mar 19
L
KOvs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 19
L
vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 20
L
KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 20
latest
Dustin Ortiz
oldest →
L
SUBvs Brandon Moreno · Apr 17
W
KOvs Hector Sandoval · Aug 17
W
vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 18
W
KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 18
L
vs Joseph Benavidez · Jan 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jussier FormigaMetricDustin Ortiz
1.42
Strikes / min
2.94
2.34
Strikes absorbed / min
2.17
64%
Strike defense
56%
1.82
TDs / 15 min
3.01
87%
Takedown defense
52%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.92Δ 1.69 — meaningful gap+0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1524 vs 1516Strikes13.0 vs 49.9Takedowns1.6 vs 2.4Sub Atts0.14 vs 0.14Form0.0 vs -0.1
Jussier FormigaDustin Ortiz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Jussier Formiga(10 fights)Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -106.6|Blue +106.6
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -2.0|Blue +2.0
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +70.0|Blue -70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jussier FormigaTargetDustin Ortiz

By target zone

2
7% acc · 25%
Head
7
13% acc · 54%
2
67% acc · 25%
Body
4
50% acc · 31%
4
100% acc · 50%
Leg
2
50% acc · 15%

By position

6
19% acc · 75%
Distance
8
16% acc · 62%
1
100% acc · 13%
Clinch
3
43% acc · 23%
1
100% acc · 13%
Ground
2
29% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Jussier Formiga rounds
1
even
0
Dustin Ortiz rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control2:02
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:38Control
Round 2Jussier Formiga edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control4:11
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Jussier Formiga edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control2:54
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:18Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
8 / 34
Sig Strikes
13 / 65
21.3%
Sig Str %
24%
55 / 90
Total Strikes
119 / 188
1 / 3
TDs
0 / 2
33.3%
TD %
0%
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
2
9:07
Ctrl Time
2:56

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Dustin Ortiz2 / 765 / 770 / 10
1Jussier Formiga2 / 620 / 281 / 11
2Dustin Ortiz3 / 1134 / 480 / 10
2Jussier Formiga0 / 913 / 250 / 10
3Dustin Ortiz8 / 4720 / 630 / 00
3Jussier Formiga6 / 1922 / 370 / 11

Jussier Formiga

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights16

Dustin Ortiz

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights14