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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jussier Formiga won · U-DEC R3

Elo1385

Elo1355

Jussier FormigavsChris CariasoUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · Saturday, May 18, 2013Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Official fight result

Jussier Formiga won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Chris Cariaso wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Jussier Formiga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Cariaso at +155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jussier Formiga enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jussier Formiga has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jussier Formiga

Red Corner

Chris Cariaso

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1385

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'3"

170.18 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jussier FormigaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 18

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Mar 19

KOvs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 19

vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 20

KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 20

latest

Chris CariasoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14

vs Louis Smolka · May 14

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14

vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15

vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jussier FormigaMetricChris Cariaso

1.42

Strikes / min

3.35

2.34

Strikes absorbed / min

2.23

64%

Strike defense

61%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

1.11

87%

Takedown defense

57%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92Δ 2.04 — meaningful gap+1.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jussier FormigaChris Cariaso

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jussier Formiga(10 fights)Chris Cariaso(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.4|Blue -29.4

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -3.0|Blue +3.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +85.0|Blue -85.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jussier FormigaTargetChris Cariaso

By target zone

25% acc · 50%

Head

22% acc · 58%

50% acc · 10%

Body

55% acc · 42%

100% acc · 40%

Leg

0% acc

By position

25% acc · 50%

Distance

10% acc · 23%

Clinch

85% acc · 42%

83% acc · 50%

Ground

47% acc · 35%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jussier Formiga rounds

even

Chris Cariaso rounds

Round 1Jussier Formiga edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns2

Control3:31

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jussier Formiga edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:19

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Chris Cariaso edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control2:01

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 26

Sig Strikes

26 / 90

34.7%

Sig Str %

24.3%

33 / 50

Total Strikes

64 / 129

4 / 8

TDs

1 / 1

49.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

8:51

Ctrl Time

1:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Cariaso	2 / 17	11 / 26	0 / 0	0
1	Jussier Formiga	3 / 7	6 / 11	2 / 3	0
2	Chris Cariaso	7 / 29	24 / 46	0 / 0	0
2	Jussier Formiga	6 / 14	26 / 34	1 / 2	0
3	Chris Cariaso	17 / 44	29 / 57	1 / 1	1
3	Jussier Formiga	1 / 5	1 / 5	1 / 3	0

Jussier Formiga

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights16

Chris Cariaso

StanceSouthpaw

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights13