← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jussier Formiga won · SUB R3

Elo1385

Elo1369

Jussier FormigavsBen NguyenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · Saturday, February 10, 2018Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Jussier Formiga won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:43

Model Prediction: Ben Nguyen wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Jussier Formiga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ben Nguyen at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jussier Formiga enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jussier Formiga has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ben Nguyen (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jussier Formiga

Red Corner

Ben Nguyen

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1385

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'5"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jussier FormigaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 18

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Mar 19

KOvs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 19

vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 20

KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 20

latest

Ben Nguyen

oldest →

SUBvs Ryan Benoit · Nov 15

KOvs Louis Smolka · Jul 16

vs Geane Herrera · Nov 16

SUBvs Tim Elliott · Jun 17

vs Wilson Reis · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jussier FormigaMetricBen Nguyen

1.42

Strikes / min

3.51

2.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

64%

Strike defense

59%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

0.25

87%

Takedown defense

63%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jussier FormigaBen Nguyen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jussier Formiga(10 fights)Ben Nguyen(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.8|Blue -15.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -104.0|Blue +104.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jussier FormigaTargetBen Nguyen

By target zone

55% acc · 89%

Head

17% acc · 38%

50% acc · 7%

Body

67% acc · 48%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

75% acc · 14%

By position

41% acc · 44%

Distance

14% acc · 33%

20% acc · 4%

Clinch

87% acc · 62%

93% acc · 52%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jussier Formiga rounds

even

Ben Nguyen rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:45

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:48Control

Round 2Jussier Formiga edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:03

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Jussier Formiga edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:14

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 49

Sig Strikes

21 / 65

55%

Sig Str %

29.3%

50 / 72

Total Strikes

37 / 82

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:02

Ctrl Time

0:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ben Nguyen	11 / 22	22 / 34	0 / 0	0
1	Jussier Formiga	5 / 9	24 / 28	1 / 2	0
2	Ben Nguyen	9 / 29	14 / 34	0 / 0	0
2	Jussier Formiga	8 / 20	11 / 23	1 / 2	0
3	Ben Nguyen	1 / 14	1 / 14	0 / 0	0
3	Jussier Formiga	14 / 20	15 / 21	0 / 0	1

Jussier Formiga

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights16

Ben Nguyen

StanceSwitch

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7