Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Flyweight
3 Rounds
Alex Perez won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1385
Elo1498
Alex Perez

Jussier FormigavsAlex PerezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · Saturday, June 6, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Perez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:06

Model Prediction: Alex Perez wins(82.3%)

Actual result: Alex Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Perez at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alex Perez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Jussier Formiga has lost 57% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Jussier Formiga
Red Corner
VS
Alex Perez
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
1385
Elo
1498
41
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'6"
170.18 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jussier FormigaL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Ben Nguyen · Feb 18
W
vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 18
W
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Mar 19
L
KOvs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 19
L
vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 20
latest
Alex Perez
oldest →
W
KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Apr 24
L
KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Jun 24
L
SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Nov 25
W
KOvs Charles Johnson · Jan 26
L
vs Sumudaerji · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jussier FormigaMetricAlex Perez
1.42
Strikes / min
4.41
2.34
Strikes absorbed / min
3.20
64%
Strike defense
59%
1.82
TDs / 15 min
2.21
87%
Takedown defense
75%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.92Δ 2.13 — meaningful gap+1.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1555 vs 1561Strikes1.4 vs 4.5Takedowns1.9 vs 3.3Sub Atts0.60 vs 1.50Form-0.3 vs 0.7
Jussier FormigaAlex Perez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Jussier Formiga(10 fights)Alex Perez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -113.5|Blue +113.5
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -49.0|Blue +49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jussier FormigaTargetAlex Perez

By target zone

17
45% acc · 94%
Head
12
31% acc · 41%
0
0% acc
Body
2
50% acc · 7%
1
100% acc · 6%
Leg
15
83% acc · 52%

By position

17
43% acc · 94%
Distance
24
44% acc · 83%
1
100% acc · 6%
Clinch
5
83% acc · 17%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jussier Formiga rounds
0
even
1
Alex Perez rounds
Round 1Alex Perez edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
2Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
2
18 / 41
Sig Strikes
29 / 61
43%
Sig Str %
47%
18 / 41
Total Strikes
29 / 61
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alex Perez29 / 6129 / 610 / 00
1Jussier Formiga18 / 4118 / 410 / 00

Jussier Formiga

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights16

Alex Perez

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights16