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Middleweight

3 Rounds

JunYong Park won · SUB R1

Elo1510

Elo1482

JunYong ParkvsDenis TiuliulinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Saturday, February 4, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

JunYong Park won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:05

Style matchupJunYong Park: Pressure fightervsDenis Tiuliulin: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: JunYong Park wins(77.9%)

Actual result: JunYong Park wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

JunYong Park at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Denis Tiuliulin enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
JunYong Park threatens submissions; Denis Tiuliulin has lost 40% of fights by sub.
JunYong Park has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Denis Tiuliulin has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Denis Tiuliulin has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

JunYong Park

Red Corner

Denis Tiuliulin

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1510

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

JunYong Park

oldest →

SUBvs Albert Duraev · Jul 23

vs Andre Muniz · Dec 23

vs Brad Tavares · Oct 24

vs Ismail Naurdiev · Jun 25

vs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 25

latest

Denis TiuliulinL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Aliaskhab Khizriev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamie Pickett · Sep 22

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Aug 23

KOvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Nov 23

vs Sedriques Dumas · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

JunYong ParkMetricDenis Tiuliulin

4.64

Strikes / min

3.61

3.82

Strikes absorbed / min

5.23

51%

Strike defense

38%

1.69

TDs / 15 min

0.96

54%

Takedown defense

72%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.82Δ 2.44 — meaningful gap-1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

JunYong ParkDenis Tiuliulin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

JunYong Park(10 fights)Denis Tiuliulin(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +28.1|Blue -28.1

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

JunYong ParkTargetDenis Tiuliulin

By target zone

61% acc · 80%

Head

25% acc · 50%

100% acc · 4%

Body

67% acc · 50%

100% acc · 16%

Leg

By position

56% acc · 60%

Distance

36% acc · 100%

Clinch

91% acc · 40%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

JunYong Park rounds

even

Denis Tiuliulin rounds

Round 1JunYong Park edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control2:58

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 38

Sig Strikes

8 / 22

65%

Sig Str %

36%

38 / 52

Total Strikes

8 / 22

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:58

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Denis Tiuliulin	8 / 22	8 / 22	0 / 0	0
1	JunYong Park	25 / 38	38 / 52	1 / 3	1

JunYong Park

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9

Denis Tiuliulin

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights6