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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Valter Walker won · SUB R1

Elo1448

Elo1576

Junior TafavsValter WalkerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Saturday, August 17, 2024Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Valter Walker won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:56

Style matchupJunior Tafa: StrikervsValter Walker: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Valter Walker wins(70.1%)

Actual result: Valter Walker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Valter Walker at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Junior Tafa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Valter Walker enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Valter Walker threatens submissions; Junior Tafa has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Junior Tafa has 72pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Junior Tafa

Red Corner

Valter Walker

Blue Corner

+114

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1448

Elo

1576

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'6"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Junior TafaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 24

KOvs Sean Sharaf · Oct 24

SUBvs Tuco Tokkos · Jul 25

SUBvs Billy Elekana · Jan 26

KOvs Iwo Baraniewski · Jun 26

latest

Valter WalkerW4 streak

oldest →

vs Lukasz Brzeski · Apr 24

SUBvs Don'Tale Mayes · Feb 25

SUBvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Jul 25

SUBvs Louie Sutherland · Oct 25

SUBvs Thomas Petersen · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Junior TafaMetricValter Walker

3.62

Strikes / min

2.00

2.66

Strikes absorbed / min

2.85

51%

Strike defense

42%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

5.74

72%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

2.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96Δ 1.81 — meaningful gap-0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Junior TafaValter Walker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Junior Tafa(8 fights)Valter Walker(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -127.6|Blue +127.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Junior TafaTargetValter Walker

By target zone

57% acc · 80%

Head

100% acc · 25%

100% acc · 20%

Body

Leg

100% acc · 75%

By position

57% acc · 80%

Distance

100% acc · 75%

100% acc · 20%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Junior Tafa rounds

even

Valter Walker rounds

Round 1Valter Walker edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:54Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 8

Sig Strikes

4 / 4

62%

Sig Str %

100%

10 / 13

Total Strikes

20 / 23

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 3

—

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Valter Walker	4 / 4	20 / 23	2 / 3	1
1	Junior Tafa	5 / 8	10 / 13	0 / 0	0

Junior Tafa

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9

Valter Walker

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights6