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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tuco Tokkos won · SUB R2

Elo1448

Elo1482

Junior TafavsTuco TokkosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Saturday, July 12, 2025Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Tuco Tokkos won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:25

Style matchupJunior Tafa: StrikervsTuco Tokkos: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Junior Tafa wins(54.3%)

Actual result: Tuco Tokkos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Junior Tafa at -180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tuco Tokkos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tuco Tokkos threatens submissions; Junior Tafa has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Junior Tafa has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Junior Tafa

Red Corner

Tuco Tokkos

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1448

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Junior TafaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 24

SUBvs Valter Walker · Aug 24

KOvs Sean Sharaf · Oct 24

SUBvs Billy Elekana · Jan 26

KOvs Iwo Baraniewski · Jun 26

latest

Tuco TokkosL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Oumar Sy · May 24

vs Navajo Stirling · Dec 24

DECvs Ivan Erslan · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Junior TafaMetricTuco Tokkos

3.62

Strikes / min

2.12

2.66

Strikes absorbed / min

4.27

51%

Strike defense

46%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

4.21

72%

Takedown defense

33%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96Δ 3.11 — meaningful gap-2.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Junior TafaTuco Tokkos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Junior Tafa(8 fights)Tuco Tokkos(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -34.3|Blue +34.3

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Junior TafaTargetTuco Tokkos

By target zone

60% acc · 88%

Head

41% acc · 64%

100% acc · 13%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 36%

By position

43% acc · 25%

Distance

44% acc · 36%

100% acc · 42%

Clinch

57% acc · 33%

Ground

54% acc · 64%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Junior Tafa rounds

even

Tuco Tokkos rounds

Round 1Tuco Tokkos edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:12

6Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

4:14Control

Round 2Tuco Tokkos edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:15

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 38

Sig Strikes

11 / 22

61%

Sig Str %

52%

25 / 39

Total Strikes

31 / 57

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 9

—

TD %

49.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:27

Ctrl Time

7:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tuco Tokkos	6 / 9	14 / 19	4 / 6	0
1	Junior Tafa	16 / 23	17 / 24	0 / 0	0
2	Tuco Tokkos	5 / 13	17 / 38	1 / 3	1
2	Junior Tafa	8 / 15	8 / 15	0 / 0	0

Junior Tafa

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9

Tuco Tokkos

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3