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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Junior Tafa won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1448

Elo1497

Junior TafavsParker PorterUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, August 26, 2023Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Junior Tafa won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:24

Style matchupJunior Tafa: StrikervsParker Porter: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Parker Porter wins(61.7%)

Actual result: Junior Tafa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Parker Porter at +136 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Junior Tafa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Junior Tafa is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Parker Porter has lost 75% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Junior Tafa

Red Corner

Parker Porter

Blue Corner

-162

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+136

(42%)

1448

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Junior TafaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Valter Walker · Aug 24

KOvs Sean Sharaf · Oct 24

SUBvs Tuco Tokkos · Jul 25

SUBvs Billy Elekana · Jan 26

KOvs Iwo Baraniewski · Jun 26

latest

Parker Porter

oldest →

vs Chase Sherman · Aug 21

vs Alan Baudot · Feb 22

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · May 22

KOvs Justin Tafa · Feb 23

KOvs Braxton Smith · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Junior TafaMetricParker Porter

3.62

Strikes / min

6.55

2.66

Strikes absorbed / min

6.32

51%

Strike defense

51%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.35

72%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96evenly matched on net striking+0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Junior TafaParker Porter

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Junior Tafa(8 fights)Parker Porter(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Junior TafaTargetParker Porter

By target zone

58% acc · 88%

Head

22% acc · 100%

100% acc · 13%

Body

Leg

By position

57% acc · 50%

Distance

22% acc · 100%

67% acc · 50%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Junior Tafa rounds

even

Parker Porter rounds

Round 1Junior Tafa edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 13

Sig Strikes

2 / 9

61%

Sig Str %

22%

11 / 16

Total Strikes

3 / 10

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Parker Porter	2 / 9	3 / 10	0 / 1	0
1	Junior Tafa	8 / 13	11 / 16	0 / 0	0

Junior Tafa

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9

Parker Porter

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8