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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Billy Elekana won · SUB R2

Elo1448

Elo1544

Junior TafavsBilly ElekanaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · Saturday, January 31, 2026Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Billy Elekana won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:18

Model Prediction: Billy Elekana wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Billy Elekana wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Billy Elekana at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Billy Elekana threatens submissions; Junior Tafa has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Junior Tafa has 72pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Billy Elekana (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Junior Tafa

Red Corner

Billy Elekana

Blue Corner

+220

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-270

(73%)

1448

Elo

1544

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Junior TafaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 24

SUBvs Valter Walker · Aug 24

KOvs Sean Sharaf · Oct 24

SUBvs Tuco Tokkos · Jul 25

KOvs Iwo Baraniewski · Jun 26

latest

Billy ElekanaW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Bogdan Guskov · Jan 25

vs Ibo Aslan · Jul 25

SUBvs Kevin Christian · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Junior TafaMetricBilly Elekana

3.62

Strikes / min

2.71

2.66

Strikes absorbed / min

3.59

51%

Strike defense

46%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.85

72%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96Δ 1.84 — meaningful gap-0.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Junior TafaBilly Elekana

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Junior Tafa(8 fights)Billy Elekana(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -95.8|Blue +95.8

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Junior TafaTargetBilly Elekana

By target zone

43% acc · 55%

Head

44% acc · 83%

78% acc · 37%

Body

60% acc · 13%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

56% acc · 97%

Distance

45% acc · 92%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Junior Tafa rounds

even

Billy Elekana rounds

Round 1Junior Tafa edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Billy Elekana edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:03Control

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 70

Sig Strikes

24 / 51

53%

Sig Str %

46%

38 / 70

Total Strikes

27 / 54

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 5

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

1:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Billy Elekana	9 / 24	10 / 25	0 / 3	0
1	Junior Tafa	26 / 46	26 / 46	0 / 0	0
2	Billy Elekana	15 / 27	17 / 29	1 / 2	1
2	Junior Tafa	12 / 24	12 / 24	0 / 0	0

Junior Tafa

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9

Billy Elekana

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4