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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Junior Dos Santos won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1393

Elo1453

Junior Dos SantosvsTai TuivasaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Saturday, December 1, 2018Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Junior Dos Santos won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:30

Style matchupJunior Dos Santos: StrikervsTai Tuivasa: Striker

Two strikers — expect distance work and a kickboxing-style battle.

Model Prediction: Junior Dos Santos wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Junior Dos Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Junior Dos Santos at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Junior Dos Santos enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tai Tuivasa is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Junior Dos Santos has lost 88% of fights by KO.
Junior Dos Santos has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Junior Dos Santos has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tai Tuivasa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Junior Dos Santos

Red Corner

Tai Tuivasa

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1393

Elo

1453

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Junior Dos SantosL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Mar 19

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Jun 19

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jan 20

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Dec 20

latest

Tai TuivasaL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24

vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26

DECvs Louie Sutherland · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Junior Dos SantosMetricTai Tuivasa

4.49

Strikes / min

3.37

3.33

Strikes absorbed / min

4.61

56%

Strike defense

42%

0.30

TDs / 15 min

0.00

81%

Takedown defense

58%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.16Δ 2.40 — meaningful gap-1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Junior Dos SantosTai Tuivasa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -60.0|Blue +60.0

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Junior Dos SantosTargetTai Tuivasa

By target zone

36% acc · 77%

Head

27% acc · 56%

57% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 25%

67% acc · 8%

Leg

60% acc · 19%

By position

41% acc · 58%

Distance

31% acc · 63%

0% acc

Clinch

60% acc · 38%

41% acc · 42%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Junior Dos Santos rounds

even

Tai Tuivasa rounds

Round 1Tai Tuivasa edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:57Control

Round 2Junior Dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:47

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 65

Sig Strikes

16 / 42

40.5%

Sig Str %

38.5%

37 / 77

Total Strikes

16 / 46

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:47

Ctrl Time

1:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tai Tuivasa	12 / 32	12 / 32	0 / 0
1	Junior Dos Santos	10 / 23	12 / 25	0 / 0
2	Tai Tuivasa	4 / 10	4 / 14	0 / 0
2	Junior Dos Santos	16 / 42	25 / 52	0 / 0

Junior Dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19

Tai Tuivasa

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17