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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Junior Dos Santos won · U-DEC R5
Elo1393
Elo1494
Stipe Miocic

Junior Dos SantosvsStipe MiocicUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · Saturday, December 13, 2014Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Junior Dos Santos won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJunior Dos Santos: StrikervsStipe Miocic: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Junior Dos Santos wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Junior Dos Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Junior Dos Santos at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Junior Dos Santos enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Junior Dos Santos is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Stipe Miocic has lost 80% of fights by KO.
  • Stipe Miocic is a KO finisher (64% of wins). Junior Dos Santos has lost 88% of fights by KO.
  • Junior Dos Santos has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Junior Dos Santos
Red Corner
VS
Stipe Miocic
Blue Corner
-400
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+355
(22%)
1393
Elo
1494
42
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'4"
195.58 cm
Reach
203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Junior Dos SantosL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Mar 19
L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Jun 19
L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jan 20
L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20
L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Dec 20
latest
Stipe MiocicL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Daniel Cormier · Jul 18
W
KOvs Daniel Cormier · Aug 19
W
vs Daniel Cormier · Aug 20
L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Mar 21
L
KOvs Jon Jones · Nov 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Junior Dos SantosMetricStipe Miocic
4.49
Strikes / min
4.67
3.33
Strikes absorbed / min
4.01
56%
Strike defense
52%
0.30
TDs / 15 min
1.74
81%
Takedown defense
65%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.16evenly matched on net striking+0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1548 vs 1565Strikes48.8 vs 47.6Takedowns0.3 vs 1.3Sub Atts0.08 vs 0.00Form-0.1 vs 0.8
Junior Dos SantosStipe Miocic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)Stipe Miocic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -101.3|Blue +101.3
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +224.0|Blue -224.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Junior Dos SantosTargetStipe Miocic

By target zone

78
39% acc · 63%
Head
77
43% acc · 87%
45
45% acc · 37%
Body
8
89% acc · 9%
0
Leg
4
100% acc · 4%

By position

111
39% acc · 90%
Distance
70
44% acc · 79%
7
78% acc · 6%
Clinch
18
58% acc · 20%
5
83% acc · 4%
Ground
1
33% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Junior Dos Santos rounds
1
even
1
Stipe Miocic rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:42Control
Round 2Stipe Miocic edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:15
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:37Control
Round 3Junior Dos Santos edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:09
Knockdowns1
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
0Knockdowns
Round 4Junior Dos Santos edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns1
Control0:29
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:27Control
Round 5Junior Dos Santos edged it
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns0
Control0:28
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
123 / 303
Sig Strikes
89 / 193
40.2%
Sig Str %
46.8%
140 / 322
Total Strikes
102 / 206
1 / 1
TDs
1 / 18
100%
TD %
5%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:21
Ctrl Time
3:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Stipe Miocic18 / 3220 / 340 / 60
1Junior Dos Santos20 / 4422 / 460 / 00
2Stipe Miocic14 / 2620 / 321 / 40
2Junior Dos Santos16 / 4017 / 410 / 00
3Stipe Miocic12 / 3613 / 370 / 40
3Junior Dos Santos21 / 6223 / 660 / 00
4Junior Dos Santos26 / 6233 / 691 / 10
4Stipe Miocic20 / 4022 / 420 / 20
5Stipe Miocic25 / 5927 / 610 / 20
5Junior Dos Santos40 / 9545 / 1000 / 00

Junior Dos Santos

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19

Stipe Miocic

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights19