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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Junior Dos Santos won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1393
Elo1490
Gabriel Gonzaga

Junior Dos SantosvsGabriel GonzagaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Vera vs Jones · Sunday, March 21, 2010Broomfield, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Junior Dos Santos won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:53

Style matchupJunior Dos Santos: StrikervsGabriel Gonzaga: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Junior Dos Santos wins(69.3%)

Actual result: Junior Dos Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Junior Dos Santos at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Junior Dos Santos enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Junior Dos Santos is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Gabriel Gonzaga has lost 71% of fights by KO.
  • Junior Dos Santos has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Junior Dos Santos
Red Corner
VS
Gabriel Gonzaga
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+230
(30%)
1393
Elo
1490
42
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'2"
195.58 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Junior Dos SantosL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Mar 19
L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Jun 19
L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jan 20
L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20
L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Dec 20
latest
Gabriel Gonzaga
oldest →
L
vs Stipe Miocic · Jan 14
L
KOvs Matt Mitrione · Dec 14
L
KOvs Mirko Cro Cop · Apr 15
W
vs Konstantin Erokhin · Dec 15
L
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Apr 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Junior Dos SantosMetricGabriel Gonzaga
4.49
Strikes / min
2.12
3.33
Strikes absorbed / min
2.94
56%
Strike defense
57%
0.30
TDs / 15 min
2.80
81%
Takedown defense
66%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.16Δ 1.98 — meaningful gap-0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes25.8 vs 13.7Takedowns0.0 vs 1.2Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.70Form0.0 vs 0.0
Junior Dos SantosGabriel Gonzaga

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)Gabriel Gonzaga(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -97.8|Blue +97.8
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Junior Dos SantosTargetGabriel Gonzaga

By target zone

14
52% acc · 70%
Head
2
20% acc · 22%
5
71% acc · 25%
Body
1
50% acc · 11%
1
100% acc · 5%
Leg
6
86% acc · 67%

By position

10
48% acc · 50%
Distance
9
47% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
10
71% acc · 50%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Junior Dos Santos rounds
0
even
0
Gabriel Gonzaga rounds
Round 1Junior Dos Santos edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:09
Knockdowns1
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:01Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
20 / 35
Sig Strikes
9 / 19
57%
Sig Str %
47%
20 / 35
Total Strikes
9 / 19
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:09
Ctrl Time
0:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Gabriel Gonzaga9 / 199 / 191 / 10
1Junior Dos Santos20 / 3520 / 350 / 00

Junior Dos Santos

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19

Gabriel Gonzaga

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12