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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Junior Dos Santos won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1393
Elo1357
Frank Mir

Junior Dos SantosvsFrank MirUFC Prediction Result

UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · Saturday, May 26, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Junior Dos Santos won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:04

Style matchupJunior Dos Santos: StrikervsFrank Mir: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Junior Dos Santos wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Junior Dos Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Junior Dos Santos at -475 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Junior Dos Santos enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Junior Dos Santos is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Frank Mir has lost 57% of fights by KO.
  • Frank Mir is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Junior Dos Santos has lost 88% of fights by KO.
  • Junior Dos Santos has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Junior Dos Santos has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Frank Mir (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Junior Dos Santos
Red Corner
VS
Frank Mir
Blue Corner
-475
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+420
(19%)
1393
Elo
1357
42
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'4"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Junior Dos SantosL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Mar 19
L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Jun 19
L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jan 20
L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20
L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Dec 20
latest
Frank MirL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Alistair Overeem · Feb 14
W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Feb 15
W
KOvs Todd Duffee · Jul 15
L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 15
L
KOvs Mark Hunt · Mar 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Junior Dos SantosMetricFrank Mir
4.49
Strikes / min
2.18
3.33
Strikes absorbed / min
3.84
56%
Strike defense
38%
0.30
TDs / 15 min
2.02
81%
Takedown defense
54%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
2.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.16Δ 2.82 — meaningful gap-1.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1552 vs 1528Strikes43.6 vs 12.4Takedowns0.4 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.05Form1.0 vs 0.8
Junior Dos SantosFrank Mir

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)Frank Mir(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +36.1|Blue -36.1
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Junior Dos SantosTargetFrank Mir

By target zone

44
63% acc · 75%
Head
5
22% acc · 29%
15
79% acc · 25%
Body
2
50% acc · 12%
0
Leg
10
100% acc · 59%

By position

56
67% acc · 95%
Distance
17
46% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
3
60% acc · 5%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Junior Dos Santos rounds
0
even
0
Frank Mir rounds
Round 1Junior Dos Santos edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns0
Control0:02
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Round 2Junior Dos Santos edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:15
Knockdowns1
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
59 / 89
Sig Strikes
17 / 37
66%
Sig Str %
46%
63 / 97
Total Strikes
17 / 37
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 4
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:17
Ctrl Time
0:09

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Frank Mir9 / 219 / 210 / 40
1Junior Dos Santos38 / 5838 / 580 / 00
2Frank Mir8 / 168 / 160 / 00
2Junior Dos Santos21 / 3125 / 390 / 00

Junior Dos Santos

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19

Frank Mir

StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights12