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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ciryl Gane won · KO/TKO

Elo1393

Elo1531

Junior Dos SantosvsCiryl GaneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · Saturday, December 12, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ciryl Gane won

KO/TKO

Style matchupJunior Dos Santos: StrikervsCiryl Gane: Elusive striker

Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.

Model Prediction: Ciryl Gane wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Ciryl Gane wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ciryl Gane at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Junior Dos Santos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Junior Dos Santos has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Ciryl Gane has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Junior Dos Santos

Red Corner

Ciryl Gane

Blue Corner

+325

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-400

(80%)

1393

Elo

1531

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Junior Dos SantosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Dec 18

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Mar 19

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Jun 19

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jan 20

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20

latest

Ciryl Gane

oldest →

SUBvs Jon Jones · Mar 23

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Sep 23

vs Alexander Volkov · Dec 24

vs Tom Aspinall · Oct 25

KOvs Alex Pereira · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Junior Dos SantosMetricCiryl Gane

4.49

Strikes / min

5.29

3.33

Strikes absorbed / min

2.33

56%

Strike defense

60%

0.30

TDs / 15 min

0.68

81%

Takedown defense

47%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.16Δ 1.80 — meaningful gap+2.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Junior Dos SantosCiryl Gane

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)Ciryl Gane(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -138.7|Blue +138.7

Recent Form

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -238.0|Blue +238.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Junior Dos SantosTargetCiryl Gane

By target zone

23% acc · 60%

Head

46% acc · 22%

43% acc · 30%

Body

85% acc · 29%

50% acc · 10%

Leg

91% acc · 49%

By position

29% acc · 100%

Distance

72% acc · 90%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Junior Dos Santos rounds

even

Ciryl Gane rounds

Round 1Ciryl Gane edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Ciryl Gane edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 35

Sig Strikes

59 / 80

23.5%

Sig Str %

72%

11 / 36

Total Strikes

61 / 82

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ciryl Gane	37 / 47	37 / 47	0 / 0
1	Junior Dos Santos	9 / 23	9 / 23	0 / 1
2	Ciryl Gane	22 / 33	24 / 35	0 / 0
2	Junior Dos Santos	1 / 12	2 / 13	0 / 0

Junior Dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19

Ciryl Gane

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights13