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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Cain Velasquez won · U-DEC R5
Elo1393
Elo1491
Cain Velasquez

Junior Dos SantosvsCain VelasquezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · Saturday, December 29, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cain Velasquez won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJunior Dos Santos: StrikervsCain Velasquez: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Junior Dos Santos wins(68.9%)

Actual result: Cain Velasquez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Junior Dos Santos at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Junior Dos Santos enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Junior Dos Santos is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Cain Velasquez has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Cain Velasquez is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Junior Dos Santos has lost 88% of fights by KO.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Junior Dos Santos
Red Corner
VS
Cain Velasquez
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
1393
Elo
1491
42
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'1"
195.58 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Junior Dos SantosL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Mar 19
L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Jun 19
L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jan 20
L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20
L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Dec 20
latest
Cain Velasquez
oldest →
W
KOvs Antonio Silva · May 13
W
KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Oct 13
L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jun 15
W
KOvs Travis Browne · Jul 16
L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Feb 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Junior Dos SantosMetricCain Velasquez
4.49
Strikes / min
6.37
3.33
Strikes absorbed / min
2.33
56%
Strike defense
57%
0.30
TDs / 15 min
5.13
81%
Takedown defense
85%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.16Δ 2.88 — meaningful gap+4.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1565 vs 1515Strikes45.3 vs 36.4Takedowns0.3 vs 1.8Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.22Form1.0 vs 0.3
Junior Dos SantosCain Velasquez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)Cain Velasquez(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -98.8|Blue +98.8
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Junior Dos SantosTargetCain Velasquez

By target zone

32
31% acc · 56%
Head
82
42% acc · 74%
25
71% acc · 44%
Body
25
93% acc · 23%
0
Leg
4
100% acc · 4%

By position

43
37% acc · 75%
Distance
35
29% acc · 32%
14
70% acc · 25%
Clinch
39
74% acc · 35%
0
Ground
37
76% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Junior Dos Santos rounds
0
even
5
Cain Velasquez rounds
Round 1Cain Velasquez edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
42Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
1:44Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Cain Velasquez edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:28
24Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
3:49Control
Round 3Cain Velasquez edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:10
22Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:41Control
Round 4Cain Velasquez edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:21
10Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:26Control
Round 5Cain Velasquez edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:05
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:17Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
57 / 137
Sig Strikes
111 / 224
40.2%
Sig Str %
49%
66 / 146
Total Strikes
210 / 339
0 / 1
TDs
11 / 33
0%
TD %
35.6%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:04
Ctrl Time
13:57

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Cain Velasquez42 / 8864 / 1153 / 90
1Junior Dos Santos17 / 4317 / 430 / 00
2Cain Velasquez24 / 3845 / 634 / 50
2Junior Dos Santos2 / 84 / 100 / 00
3Cain Velasquez22 / 4440 / 671 / 50
3Junior Dos Santos13 / 3015 / 320 / 00
4Junior Dos Santos12 / 3415 / 370 / 10
4Cain Velasquez10 / 2825 / 432 / 60
5Cain Velasquez13 / 2636 / 511 / 80
5Junior Dos Santos13 / 2215 / 240 / 00

Junior Dos Santos

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19

Cain Velasquez

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights9