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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Junior Dos Santos won · U-DEC R5
Elo1393
Elo1467
Blagoy Ivanov

Junior Dos SantosvsBlagoy IvanovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · Saturday, July 14, 2018Boise, Idaho, USA

Official fight result

Junior Dos Santos won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJunior Dos Santos: StrikervsBlagoy Ivanov: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Junior Dos Santos wins(78.2%)

Actual result: Junior Dos Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Junior Dos Santos at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Junior Dos Santos enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Junior Dos Santos has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Blagoy Ivanov (53.5%).
  • Junior Dos Santos has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Junior Dos Santos
Red Corner
VS
Blagoy Ivanov
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+165
(38%)
1393
Elo
1467
42
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'4"
Height
5'11"
195.58 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Junior Dos SantosL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Mar 19
L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Jun 19
L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jan 20
L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20
L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Dec 20
latest
Blagoy IvanovL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Derrick Lewis · Nov 19
L
vs Augusto Sakai · May 20
W
vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · May 22
L
vs Marcin Tybura · Feb 23
L
vs Alexandr Romanov · Jul 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Junior Dos SantosMetricBlagoy Ivanov
4.49
Strikes / min
3.25
3.33
Strikes absorbed / min
4.20
56%
Strike defense
53%
0.30
TDs / 15 min
0.69
81%
Takedown defense
61%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.16Δ 2.11 — meaningful gap-0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1549 vs 1500Strikes56.2 vs —Takedowns0.3 vs —Sub Atts0.06 vs —Form-0.4 vs 0.0
Junior Dos SantosBlagoy Ivanov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)Blagoy Ivanov(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -73.9|Blue +73.9
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red -47.1|Blue +47.1
Grappler Score
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Junior Dos SantosTargetBlagoy Ivanov

By target zone

66
39% acc · 60%
Head
40
19% acc · 78%
41
55% acc · 37%
Body
10
67% acc · 20%
3
100% acc · 3%
Leg
1
100% acc · 2%

By position

110
44% acc · 100%
Distance
49
22% acc · 96%
0
Clinch
2
100% acc · 4%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Junior Dos Santos rounds
0
even
0
Blagoy Ivanov rounds
Round 1Junior Dos Santos edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Junior Dos Santos edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Junior Dos Santos edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 4Junior Dos Santos edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Junior Dos Santos edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
110 / 248
Sig Strikes
51 / 229
42.2%
Sig Str %
20.6%
110 / 248
Total Strikes
51 / 229
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Blagoy Ivanov5 / 265 / 260 / 00
1Junior Dos Santos8 / 288 / 280 / 00
2Blagoy Ivanov6 / 386 / 380 / 00
2Junior Dos Santos26 / 4826 / 480 / 00
3Blagoy Ivanov8 / 458 / 450 / 00
3Junior Dos Santos19 / 4819 / 480 / 00
4Junior Dos Santos20 / 5720 / 570 / 10
4Blagoy Ivanov15 / 5915 / 590 / 00
5Blagoy Ivanov17 / 6117 / 610 / 00
5Junior Dos Santos37 / 6737 / 670 / 00

Junior Dos Santos

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19

Blagoy Ivanov

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8