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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Junior Assuncao won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Junior AssuncaovsEddie YaginUFC Prediction Result

UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · Saturday, September 24, 2011Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Junior Assuncao won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJunior Assuncao: WrestlervsEddie Yagin: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Junior Assuncao wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Junior Assuncao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Junior Assuncao at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Junior Assuncao

Red Corner

Eddie Yagin

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

182.88 cm

Reach

175 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Junior Assuncao

oldest →

vs Ross Pearson · Dec 11

latest

Eddie Yagin

oldest →

vs Mark Hominick · Apr 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Junior AssuncaoMetricEddie Yagin

3.31

Strikes / min

3.13

2.06

Strikes absorbed / min

5.77

44%

Strike defense

42%

2.43

TDs / 15 min

0.00

66%

Takedown defense

62%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.25Δ 3.89 — meaningful gap-2.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Junior AssuncaoEddie Yagin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Junior Assuncao(2 fights)Eddie Yagin(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Junior AssuncaoTargetEddie Yagin

By target zone

68% acc · 63%

Head

36% acc · 90%

85% acc · 17%

Body

67% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

50% acc · 27%

Distance

36% acc · 90%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

81% acc · 70%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Junior Assuncao rounds

even

Eddie Yagin rounds

Round 1Junior Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control1:52

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Junior Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control1:18

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Junior Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control3:56

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 90

Sig Strikes

10 / 26

64.7%

Sig Str %

38.3%

164 / 204

Total Strikes

20 / 40

3 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

41.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:06

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Eddie Yagin	3 / 9	13 / 23	0 / 0	0
1	Junior Assuncao	7 / 17	16 / 26	2 / 2	0
2	Eddie Yagin	4 / 10	4 / 10	0 / 0	1
2	Junior Assuncao	21 / 27	25 / 31	1 / 4	0
3	Eddie Yagin	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 0	1
3	Junior Assuncao	35 / 46	123 / 147	0 / 2	0

Junior Assuncao

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2

Eddie Yagin

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach—

Fights2