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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Andrei Arlovski won · U-DEC R3

Elo1374

Elo1492

Junior AlbinivsAndrei ArlovskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · Saturday, November 11, 2017Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Andrei Arlovski won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJunior Albini: Well-roundedvsAndrei Arlovski: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Junior Albini wins(54.4%)

Actual result: Andrei Arlovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Junior Albini at -320 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Junior Albini enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Junior Albini has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Junior Albini

Red Corner

Andrei Arlovski

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1374

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Junior AlbiniL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tim Johnson · Jul 17

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · May 18

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 19

KOvs Maurice Greene · Jun 19

latest

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Junior AlbiniMetricAndrei Arlovski

3.98

Strikes / min

3.82

6.08

Strikes absorbed / min

3.22

52%

Strike defense

57%

1.54

TDs / 15 min

0.37

100%

Takedown defense

76%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.10Δ 2.70 — meaningful gap+0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Junior AlbiniAndrei Arlovski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Junior Albini(5 fights)Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -118.5|Blue +118.5

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Junior AlbiniTargetAndrei Arlovski

By target zone

40% acc · 73%

Head

33% acc · 57%

60% acc · 13%

Body

82% acc · 29%

88% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

40% acc · 77%

Distance

43% acc · 88%

79% acc · 23%

Clinch

85% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Junior Albini rounds

even

Andrei Arlovski rounds

Round 1Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control1:07

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:53

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:38

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 106

Sig Strikes

92 / 203

44.7%

Sig Str %

44.7%

74 / 133

Total Strikes

106 / 217

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:38

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Andrei Arlovski	30 / 63	35 / 68	0 / 0
1	Junior Albini	19 / 43	25 / 49	0 / 0
2	Andrei Arlovski	30 / 67	37 / 74	0 / 1
2	Junior Albini	11 / 26	27 / 42	0 / 0
3	Andrei Arlovski	32 / 73	34 / 75	0 / 0
3	Junior Albini	18 / 37	22 / 42	0 / 1

Junior Albini

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27